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At the moment, the USD/CHF pair is trading within a familiar three-day range, down by approximately 0.10% on the day. Spot prices remain above the weekly low, which was recorded around the 0.8025 level.
The U.S. Dollar Index is hovering near a one-and-a-half-week low, driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve may resume its rate-cutting cycle as early as September. These expectations are supported by a weak NonFarm Payrolls (NFP) report and disappointing ISM business activity data. Such indicators are weighing on U.S. Treasury yields and putting pressure on the dollar, which in turn affects the USD/CHF pair.
However, several factors are limiting gains in the Swiss franc and contributing to the pair's stabilization. Notably, Switzerland has been hit with a 39% tariff on exports to the U.S., and proposals by Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter for a 10% tariff in response were rejected by U.S. officials. These developments are undermining the CHF's safe-haven status and supporting the current levels in the pair.
For today, key market events include the release of U.S. initial jobless claims data, speeches by FOMC members, and a speech by Donald Trump later in the North American session—all of which could significantly impact the pair's dynamics.
From a technical perspective, it is worth noting that the 9-day EMA is above the 14-day EMA, and the oscillators on the daily chart are in positive territory. This suggests that the pair is not ready to give up its ground, and traders considering short positions should wait for a break below the weekly low around 0.8025.
Currently, USD/CHF is near resistance at the 50-day SMA. A break above this level would bring the next resistance into focus at 0.8119. Support lies at the weekly low near 0.8025, and a failure to hold there would expose the round level of 0.8000. If this level also gives way, the pair could slide further to the next support at 0.7950, followed by the psychological level of 0.7900.
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