12.08.202511:17 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Trade Truce Extended for 90 Days

Yesterday, many investors and traders breathed a sigh of relief after U.S. President Donald Trump extended the pause on raising tariffs on Chinese goods for another 90 days, until early November. This move helped stabilize trade relations between the world's two largest economies.

The decision served as a signal of hope for the global economy, which had feared further escalation of the trade war — a conflict that could have slowed global growth and disrupted supply chains. Extending the truce allows companies to continue planning their operations without the risk of sudden increases in import and export costs, which supports the investment climate. However, despite the positive market reaction, it is important to remember that this is only a temporary measure. Over the next 90 days, both sides will need to make every effort to reach a mutually beneficial agreement that can resolve existing disputes and prevent further destabilization of trade relations.

Trump signed an order extending the truce until November 10, postponing the tariff increase that had been scheduled for Tuesday. The de-escalation initially came into effect when the U.S. and China agreed to scale back reciprocal tariff hikes and ease export restrictions on rare earth magnets and certain technologies. All key elements of the agreement will remain unchanged, according to the White House bulletin, which mentioned no changes other than the new deadline. China, in a similar statement, announced it would also extend its suspension of measures for another 90 days.

Last month in Sweden, negotiators from both sides reached a preliminary agreement to maintain the deal. Without the extension, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods would have risen to at least 54%.

The extension will give both countries more time to discuss other unresolved issues, such as tariffs related to the fentanyl trade that Trump imposed on Beijing, U.S. concerns over China's purchases of Russian and Iranian oil under sanctions, and disagreements over American business operations in China.

The signing could pave the way for Trump to visit China to meet with President Xi Jinping in late October. "The United States continues to negotiate with the PRC to address the lack of reciprocity in our economic relations and the resulting national and economic security issues," Trump wrote in the order. "In the course of these negotiations, the PRC continues to take important steps to correct non-reciprocal trade agreements and to address issues that raise concerns for the United States in the areas of economics and national security."

In the currency market, the U.S. dollar reacted to the news with gains against several major currencies.

Regarding the current technical picture for EUR/USD, buyers now need to aim for the 1.1640 level. Only then will there be a chance to test 1.1670. From there, the pair could move toward 1.1695, although this would be difficult without support from major market players. The ultimate target is the 1.1730 high. In the event of a decline, significant buying interest is expected only around the 1.1600 level. If no strong buyers appear there, it would be preferable to wait for a test of the 1.1560 low or consider opening long positions from 1.1530.

Regarding the current technical picture for GBP/USD, buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.3470. Only this will allow targeting 1.3502, above which further gains would be challenging. The ultimate target is the 1.3540 level. If the pair falls, sellers will attempt to gain control over 1.3400. If successful, breaking below this range would seriously damage bullish positions and push GBP/USD toward the 1.3375 low, with the prospect of reaching 1.3350.