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On Tuesday, the USD/CHF pair drew the attention of sellers, partially halting the previous day's advance and setting a new weekly high. However, spot prices retreated only slightly from that high, requiring caution from sellers.
The U.S. dollar is struggling to extend the gains achieved over the past two days as market participants factor in the possibility that the Federal Reserve could resume its rate-cutting cycle as early as September.
This is putting pressure on USD/CHF. In addition, traders are pricing in at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year. These expectations emerged after weak U.S. macroeconomic data, including the nonfarm payrolls report, which pointed to a potential slowdown in the economy. At the same time, ongoing uncertainty in the trade sector may prevent market participants from actively buying the Swiss franc, limiting further downside for USD/CHF. It is worth noting that Switzerland faces a 39% tariff on exports to the United States, and U.S. authorities have rejected Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter's request to introduce 10% tariffs instead. Meanwhile, the underlying bullish bias may cap the franc's appreciation, given its status as a safe-haven currency.
From a fundamental standpoint, traders are advised to refrain from taking aggressive positions ahead of the release of new U.S. inflation data, scheduled for later in the North American trading session. The main focus is on the Consumer Price Index report, which may provide fresh signals on the Fed's policy direction and could influence demand for the U.S. dollar. FOMC member speeches may also significantly impact the pair's dynamics and set its momentum.
From a technical perspective, prices encountered resistance at the weekly high but, after pulling back, remained above the 0.8100 level — close to the weekly peak — with daily chart oscillators staying positive, confirming an optimistic outlook. Only a drop below the 50-day SMA, currently at 0.8550, could weaken the bulls' position.
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