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On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement and consolidated above the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1695. This suggests that the euro may continue rising today toward the next 100.0% retracement level at 1.1789. A close below 1.1695 would favor the U.S. dollar and could trigger a decline toward the support level of 1.1637–1.1645.
The wave structure on the hourly chart remains straightforward. The last completed upward wave did not break the high of the previous wave, and the last completed downward wave did not break the prior low. Therefore, the trend can still be considered "bearish" for now, though it has been changing frequently lately due to the news background. The latest labor market data and the revised outlook for FOMC monetary policy support bullish traders.
On Wednesday, there was no significant news, so trader activity was low. Today, several reports will be released in the Eurozone and the U.S., but they are not the main focus this week. Tomorrow, historic talks between the leaders of the U.S. and Russia will take place in Alaska, which could potentially end the years-long military conflict in Ukraine. It is expected to be the first in a series of high-level meetings, with future sessions to include Ukraine's president. In any case, the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine are likely facing lengthy negotiations. The key is that both sides take the first step. Therefore, Friday's talks will determine whether the conflict continues with no changes or if the parties agree to start negotiations. In my view, if the talks are positive, bullish traders may push for another rally, as reduced geopolitical tension often weighs on the dollar. Otherwise, bears may attempt several attacks.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the euro and consolidated above 1.1680 after two consecutive bullish divergences. This suggests that growth may continue toward the next Fibonacci level of 161.8% at 1.1854. However, a bearish divergence is now forming on the CCI indicator, and a close below 1.1680 would allow traders to expect a decline toward the 127.2% retracement level at 1.1495.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the last reporting week, professional traders closed 1,848 long positions and opened 5,916 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category remains bullish, supported by Donald Trump's policies, and continues to strengthen over time. Speculators now hold 247,000 long positions and 131,000 short positions — nearly a two-to-one ratio. Additionally, the numerous green cells in the table above indicate strong position increases in the euro. In most cases, interest in the euro continues to grow, while interest in the dollar is falling.
For 26 consecutive weeks, major players have been reducing short positions and increasing longs. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they may cause a range of long-term, structural problems for the U.S. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, some key economic indicators are showing declines.
News calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone:
On August 14, the economic calendar does not include any truly important releases. The impact of the news background on market sentiment during Thursday will be modest but present throughout the day.
EUR/USD forecast and trader recommendations: Short positions may be considered if the hourly chart closes below 1.1695, targeting 1.1637–1.1645 and 1.1590. Long positions could be opened after a rebound from 1.1590 on the hourly chart with targets at 1.1637 and 1.1695 — both of which have already been reached. Today, buying opportunities may arise if the pair closes above 1.1695, aiming for 1.1789.
The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1789–1.1392 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.
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