15.08.202513:46 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: USD/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

Today, Friday, USD/CHF is attracting new sellers amid the broader weakening of the U.S. dollar.

The initial market reaction to Thursday's stronger-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index was short-lived due to expectations of a September Fed rate cut. This remains the primary factor putting pressure on the dollar.

An additional factor is the extension of the U.S.–China tariff truce for another three months, which has eased concerns about a trade war between the world's two largest economies. Hopes for an end to the prolonged conflict in Ukraine at the upcoming meeting between the U.S. and Russian presidents are also supporting optimistic market sentiment and could limit the rise of the Swiss franc, traditionally seen as a safe-haven currency.

Furthermore, the ongoing uncertainty in global trade may keep Swiss franc bulls from taking aggressive positions, which also supports the dollar from deeper losses in the USD/CHF pair. It is important to note that Switzerland has faced destructive tariffs on exports to the U.S.—39%—which heightens concerns over the negative impact on the country's economy.

Therefore, it would be prudent to wait for an active sell-off before preparing for further downside in USD/CHF.

For better trading opportunities today, attention should be paid to the release of monthly retail sales data, the Empire State Manufacturing Index, as well as the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations.

From a technical perspective, today's drop below the 200- and 100-period SMAs on the hourly chart favors the bears, especially since the oscillators on the same chart are in negative territory. However, on the daily chart, oscillators have not yet moved into negative territory, so bears should exercise caution before opening new short positions.