21.08.202518:15 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/USD Analysis on August 21, 2025

The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has remained unchanged for several months now, which is encouraging. Even during the formation of corrective waves, the integrity of the structure has been preserved. This allows for accurate forecasts. I would remind you that wave patterns do not always look like textbook examples. Right now, however, the structure looks very clear.

The bullish segment of the trend continues to develop, while the news background is, for the most part, unfavorable to the dollar. The trade war launched by Donald Trump is ongoing. The confrontation with the Federal Reserve continues. Dovish expectations are growing. Trump's "one big law" will increase U.S. government debt by 3 trillion dollars, while the U.S. president keeps raising tariffs and introducing new ones. The market has rated the results of Trump's first six months very poorly, even though economic growth in the second quarter reached 3%.

At the moment, it can be assumed that wave 4 has been completed. If that is the case, the construction of impulse wave 5 has begun, with potential targets stretching as far as the 1.25 level. Of course, the corrective structure of wave 4 could extend into a five-wave pattern, but I am working from the most likely scenario.

The EUR/USD pair once again showed almost no change on Thursday. For more than a week now, the trading range has been very narrow. If at the beginning of the week such low activity could be explained by the lack of news, today the news flow was sufficient. Unfortunately, most of the data contradicted each other, giving neither the euro nor the dollar any advantage.

Let's start with Germany's business activity indices. In August, the manufacturing PMI rose from 49.1 to 49.9. Market expectations were lower, so the report can be considered positive. At the same time, the services PMI fell from 50.6 to 50.1, while forecasts had been higher. This report can therefore be considered negative.

We saw the same pattern in the euro area as a whole. The services index came in below forecasts, while the manufacturing index was above expectations. As a result, neither buyers nor sellers had enough justification for active trading. Thus, EUR/USD continues to remain stuck at the same levels. For the rest of the week, only U.S. PMIs and a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell remain on the agenda. In my view, there is a strong chance that this data will also fail to impress the market. Without doubt, the market expects at least some specifics from Powell, since expectations of a rate cut in September continue to swing back and forth. Last night, the FOMC minutes revealed that policymakers were focusing on high inflation rather than on rescuing the labor market.

General conclusions

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair continues to build a bullish segment of the trend. The wave pattern remains entirely dependent on the news background related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The targets for this segment may extend as far as the 1.25 level. Therefore, I continue to recommend long positions with targets around 1.1875, corresponding to the 161.8% Fibonacci level, and higher. I assume that wave 4 has been completed. Accordingly, this remains a good time for buying.

Key principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo changes.
2. If there is no confidence in the market situation, it is better not to enter.
3. Absolute certainty in the direction of movement does not and cannot exist. Always remember to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.