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The euro, the pound, and other risk assets sharply rose against the U.S. dollar, as the Federal Reserve Chair's statements did, in fact, impact market sentiment.
During his speech in Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that he is considering cutting rates in September of this year, which led to a sharp weakening of the U.S. dollar. Traders interpreted this as a signal for the start of a new phase of monetary policy aimed at stimulating economic growth. The Fed's decision is likely driven by concerns over slowing economic growth in the U.S. and weakness in the labor market. Lowering interest rates is intended to reduce borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which in turn should stimulate investment and consumer spending. However, rate cuts also carry certain risks. In particular, they may lead to increased inflation, which the Fed has been actively trying to contain, and to a weakening of the dollar's purchasing power.
Whether the euro continues its rise today will depend on German data. Figures are expected on the business climate index, the current conditions index, and the economic expectations index from IFO. These three indicators, published by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research in Munich, are key barometers for assessing the health of the eurozone's largest economy and, accordingly, have a significant impact on the value of the single European currency. The business climate index, as an aggregate measure, reflects overall sentiment among German businesses. The current conditions index provides insight into how companies evaluate their present situation. Finally, the economic expectations index shows business forecasts for the next six months. Positive results could support the euro, while weak data could trigger sell-offs and lead to a weakening of the currency. Monitoring these indicators closely is key to understanding the euro's future trajectory in the forex market.
If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is best to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly above or below forecasts, the Momentum strategy is more appropriate.
Buying on a breakout above 1.1730 could push the euro toward 1.1760 and 1.1785.
Selling on a breakout below 1.1695 could lead to a decline toward 1.1660 and 1.1625.
Buying on a breakout above 1.3530 could lift the pound toward 1.3560 and 1.3590.
Selling on a breakout below 1.3500 could push the pair down toward 1.3460 and 1.3420.
Buying on a breakout above 147.30 could lift the dollar toward 147.60 and 147.90.
Selling on a breakout below 146.05 could trigger dollar sell-offs toward 146.60 and 146.30.
I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1729 followed by a return below this level.
I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1686 followed by a return above this level.
I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3525 followed by a return below this level.
I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3480 followed by a return above this level.
I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6505 followed by a return below this level.
I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6471 followed by a return above this level.
I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3846 followed by a return below this level.
I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3811 followed by a return above this level.
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