26.08.202519:30 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: GBP/USD Analysis on August 26, 2025

For GBP/USD, the wave structure continues to indicate the formation of a bullish impulse sequence. The wave pattern nearly coincides with EUR/USD, as the sole "culprit" remains the U.S. dollar. Demand for it is declining across the market (in the medium term), so many instruments show nearly identical dynamics. At this point, wave 4 is presumably complete. If that is indeed the case, the instrument's advance will continue within the framework of impulse wave 5. Wave 4 could take on a five-wave form, but that scenario is less likely.

It is worth remembering that much in the currency market now depends on Donald Trump's policies, not only trade-related ones. While positive news occasionally comes out of the U.S., the market continues to focus on overall economic uncertainty, contradictory decisions and statements from Trump, and the hostile, protectionist stance of the White House. Global tensions are escalating, and as noted, the dollar remains at the center of it all—hence it bears the brunt.

The GBP/USD rate on Tuesday barely moved, although there were reasons. Despite the market correctly anticipating the outcome of the U.S. durable goods orders report, the report itself can hardly be called positive. Orders fell by 2.8% in July, and June's figure was revised down from -9.3% to -9.4%. Therefore, the U.S. session could easily have seen continued dollar selling pressure.

I also previously mentioned the case of Lisa Cook's dismissal, which did not take place. Ms. Cook may defend her rights in court and challenge the baseless accusations made by Donald Trump, who wants to remove her for a reason entirely unrelated to her 2021 mortgage. The mortgage is merely a pretext, and Cook's guilt has not been proven. Thus, Cook is likely to remain an FOMC member, while Trump will shift his focus to another candidate.

As I said earlier, even Powell's voluntary resignation would not help Trump. The FOMC has 12 voting members, meaning more than half would have to consistently vote to cut the rate to 2% or lower, as the president desires. This makes Trump's task harder—he would need to remove nearly half of the FOMC. Such dismissals cannot be carried out without valid grounds, violations of law, or breaches of ethics. Personally, I have no doubt that Trump's team will now "dig" into the background of every Fed governor, except those already willing to vote for monetary policy easing. In my view, these developments only further reduce market interest in the dollar. The Fed risks losing its independence and becoming subject to Trump, whose decisions are wholly inconsistent with the mandates given to the Fed by Congress and the U.S. Constitution.

Conclusions

The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains unchanged. The market is in a bullish, impulsive phase. Under Trump, markets may face numerous shocks and reversals that could significantly impact the wave structure, but for now, the working scenario remains intact. Targets for the bullish phase are now set around 1.4017. I assume that corrective wave 4 has been completed. Wave 2 of 5 may also be finished. Therefore, I recommend buying with a target at 1.4017.

Key principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often subject to revisions.
2. If you are not confident in the market, it is better to stay out.
3. Absolute certainty in market direction is impossible. Always use Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.