18.09.202507:12 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: What to Pay Attention to on September 18? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Macroeconomic Report Analysis:

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday, and none of them are significant. The most important reports this week have already been released in the U.K., while at the end of the week, traders will be entirely focused on the meetings of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. The Fed announced the results of its meeting yesterday evening, but throughout today, both currency pairs may remain under the pressure of that event. The Fed meeting will overlap with today's BoE meeting, which will undoubtedly keep the key rate unchanged, but at the same time could trigger either a rise or a decline in the pound, as the market will pay attention to the distribution of votes on the rate decision.

Fundamental Events Analysis:

Among Thursday's fundamental events, another speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde can be noted. Lagarde has already spoken twice this week, and in both cases, she did not touch on monetary policy at all. The European Central Bank meeting took place last week, so all the information the market needed has already been provided. The key event today is the BoE meeting. Its outcome will determine the dynamics of the British currency during the day.

General Conclusions:

On this penultimate trading day of the week, both currency pairs may resume upward movement, but new buy signals are required for this to happen. The euro can be traded today from the 1.1808 level, while trading the pound sterling should depend on the outcome of the BoE meeting. Until this important fundamental event, we would not recommend entering the market, as the reaction could be unpredictable—no one can know in advance what information the British central bank will provide.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.