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As soon as Wednesday, October 1, the U.S. government and all federal institutions may go on leave. No, this isn't the start of vacation season. This is Donald Trump, once again, failing to reach an agreement with the Democrats — and lacking the political leverage to bypass the opposition. This time, U.S. legislation stands in Trump's way: the law requires 60 votes in the Senate to pass the budget for the next fiscal year. Whether Trump forgot about this or anticipated it and prepared accordingly is unclear. Most likely, it's the latter.
Either way, whether he forgot or not doesn't really matter. What matters is the shutdown, which could become the first in the past six years. Shutdowns in the U.S. are hardly unusual — there have been around 20 over the last 50 years. Every few years, Democrats and Republicans fail to find common ground. But this particular case is unique. I believe Trump is in a hurry. Why and where he's rushing to are questions worth considering thoroughly. In fact, I'd go a step further and ask: why does Trump so desperately want a Nobel Peace Prize — something he himself makes no secret of? Why does he want to present himself as the world's chief peacemaker, and why has he started a "global restructuring" of the international order?
In my view, Trump wants to leave a legacy. The man in the White House realizes that this term may be his last. By the time he is expected to leave office, Trump will be 82 years old. Of course, with good health, you can run a country up to age 100, but Trump is a realist — even if it's not always obvious from his actions. He's criticized Biden for being too old, but in three years, Trump himself will be the same age Biden was when Trump made those comments.
I believe Trump is racing against time because he realizes his own is running out. He's declared himself the greatest president in U.S. history and wants to stand alongside Abraham Lincoln and George Washington. That's why he's pushing for record-breaking growth in the U.S. economy at any cost. That's why he wants to end as many wars as possible. That's why he wants the Nobel Peace Prize, his own Taj Mahal, his own Pyramid of Khufu in the White House backyard, and self-funded statues in his golf clubs. If this isn't preparation for retirement with a sense of accomplishment, I don't know what is.
Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward segment of the trend. The wave layout remains entirely dependent on the news backdrop tied to Trump's decisions, as well as the internal and external politics of the new White House administration. The current trend segment could extend as far as the 1.25 area. At the moment, a corrective wave four is unfolding, which may already be complete. The upward wave structure remains intact. Therefore, in the near term, I'm only considering buying opportunities. By the end of the year, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, corresponding to the 200.0% Fibonacci.
The wave pattern on GBP/USD has changed. We are still dealing with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal structure is becoming harder to read. If wave 4 takes the form of a complex three-wave pattern, the structure will normalize, but even in that case, wave four would be far more complex and extended than wave 2. In my opinion, the best reference point right now is 1.3341, which corresponds to the 127.2% Fibonacci level. Two failed attempts to break this mark may indicate the market's readiness for new buying momentum.
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