08.12.202506:50 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: What to Pay Attention to on December 8? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Monday. It can confidently be stated that macroeconomic factors will have a very weak influence on market sentiment today. Germany will release its industrial production report for October, which is not among the most important reports. Later in the week, the FOMC meeting will undoubtedly stir the market, but increased activity may only be observed for a very brief period. Recall that the market is almost certain that the Federal Reserve will lower the key rate for the third consecutive time. This means that this decision may already be priced in. Nevertheless, the overall fundamental backdrop remains supportive of the growth of the European currency.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There are also very few fundamental events planned for Monday. In essence, the only notable event is a speech by European Central Bank representative Piero Cipollone. As mentioned multiple times, there are currently no questions for the ECB regarding monetary policy. The ECB (unlike the Bank of England and the Fed) has achieved its goal of price stability, so there are no grounds for raising or lowering the key rate in the coming months. As such, we do not expect any significant statements from Christine Lagarde and her colleagues. This week, all attention will be focused on the Fed.

General Conclusions:

During the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs are likely to trend upward, as upward trends continue to form in both cases. The euro has an excellent trading range around 1.1655-1.1666. The British pound is trading in a range of 1.3319-1.3331. Volatility on Monday may again be weak, as no significant events are scheduled for today.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the time between the start of the European session and mid-American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, using signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility exists, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as an area of support or resistance.
7. After moving 15-20 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction to trade.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is crucial to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and implementing sound money management are keys to successful long-term trading.