16.12.202506:55 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: What to Pay Attention to on December 16? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

A large number of macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Tuesday, and most deserve traders' close attention. In the Eurozone, indices of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors for December, as well as economic sentiment indices, will be released today. In the UK, reports on the unemployment rate, number of unemployed, wages, and business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors will be published. In the US, key reports include Non-Farm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, the ADP report, retail sales, and business activity indices for the services and manufacturing sectors. Certainly, Non-Farm Payrolls and the US unemployment rate will be the most significant, but all British reports could also affect price formation, and some European reports may affect the euro's exchange rate.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

No fundamental events are scheduled for Tuesday, but traders do not actually need them today. The sheer volume of important macroeconomic data being published today means that any speech by a significant official will inevitably take a back seat. It is also worth noting that the Federal Reserve meeting took place last week, so there are currently no questions from the market for the US central bank. The European Central Bank and Bank of England meetings will take place on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, so it is unlikely that their representatives will provide comments on monetary policy just a couple of days beforehand.

General Conclusions:

On the second trading day of the week, both currency pairs may again rise, as an upward trend continues in both cases. However, the enormous number of important reports being published today will ensure that the technical picture is clearly not the primary focus. The euro has a zone of 1.1745-1.1754 for opening positions around it, while the British pound has a zone of 1.3319-1.3331.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the time between the start of the European session and mid-American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, using signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility exists, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as an area of support or resistance.
7. After moving 15-20 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction to trade.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is crucial to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and implementing sound money management are keys to successful long-term trading.