19.12.202508:53 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 19. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the price at 1.1717 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of 1.1717 triggered Buy Scenario #2, as the MACD was already in oversold territory, driving the pair up by more than 40 pips.

Yesterday, the European Central Bank decided not to change interest rates, clearly signaling the end of the easing phase of monetary policy. The upward revision of forecasts and positive changes in policymakers' plans indicate greater resilience in the eurozone economy than previously thought. However, despite the optimistic assessments, the ECB remains cautious. The accompanying statement to the interest rate decision emphasizes that economic instability persists, and the central bank is closely monitoring developments. Special attention will be paid to inflation, as keeping it at the target level of around 2% remains a priority for the ECB.

Today, key economic indicators will be published in the first half of the day: the GfK consumer sentiment barometer for Germany, the German producer price index, the ECB current account balance, and the eurozone consumer confidence indicator. This data will provide insights into the current state and the dynamics of development of the German and broader European economies. In particular, the GfK consumer climate index reflects German households' willingness to spend and their confidence in the future. Positive values indicate optimism and a likely increase in consumer spending, which is good for the economy and the euro. The German producer price index, on the other hand, is a significant measure of inflationary pressure in the industry. An increase in producer prices may also positively impact the euro in the future.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I will consider buying the euro today when it reaches the price level around 1.1731 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1760. At the point of 1.1760, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, anticipating a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro can only be expected after positive data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1715 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is oversold. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to opposing levels 1.1731 and 1.1760 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1715 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1683, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips back from the level). Pressure on the pair will return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1731 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to opposing levels of 1.1715 and 1.1683 can be expected.

Chart Overview:

• Thin Green Line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick Green Line – indicative price level for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin Red Line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick Red Line – indicative price level for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to avoid the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.