12.01.202607:12 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: What to Watch on January 12? Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of macroeconomic reports:

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday. Recall that last week, a large number of important reports were released in the U.S. and the Eurozone, yet volatility in both currency pairs remained very weak. The dollar has continued to appreciate in recent days and weeks, but it feels like almost everything in the market now depends on technical factors. And the main technical factor is the euro's flat, which has lasted six months. It is precisely because of this that both the euro and the pound are trading lower, while some traders and analysts desperately try to explain it in terms of fundamental and macroeconomic factors.

Analysis of fundamental events:

Several fundamental events are scheduled for Monday — speeches by Luis de Guindos (European Central Bank), Thomas Barkin, and Raphael Bostic (Federal Reserve). This year, several members of the Fed's monetary committee have already given comments, but those comments were practically meaningless in the context of Powell's December stance and the Fed's overall monetary policy. Three indicators will influence the Fed's rate decisions in 2026: the labor market, unemployment, and inflation. Labor-market reports last week showed no improvements. Although the unemployment rate declined, it remains at the highest level in the past three years. This week, the inflation report will be released, after which one can make assumptions about the Fed's possible decision at the January meeting.

General conclusions:

During the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue to decline. The euro — within the framework of a downward trend, and the pound sterling — following suit. The euro can be traded today in the 1.1655–1.1666 range, and the pound in the 1.3437–1.3446 range. The macroeconomic background will not influence the movement of either currency pair; it was not the basis for traders' decisions last week either.

Main rules of the trading system:

1. Signal strength is judged by the time required to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened on false signals near a level, then all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can generate a mass of false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session; after that, all trades must be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, MACD-based signals should ideally be traded only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
6. If two levels are located too close to each other (5–20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
7. After a move of 15–20 pips in the correct direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

What is shown on the charts:

Support and resistance price levels — levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit can be placed near them.

Red lines — channels or trendlines that reflect the current tendency and show which direction is preferable to trade now.

MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always listed in the news calendar) can strongly affect a currency pair's movement. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with maximum caution, or positions should be closed, to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.