13.01.202620:32 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Weekly Forecast Based on Simplified Wave Analysis for GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, and EUR/CHF on January 13th

GBP/USD

Analysis:

On the chart of the main British pound pair, the short-term trend has been driven by an upward wave algorithm since the beginning of last year. Within its structure, a corrective move is currently developing as part of the final wave (C). Prices are approaching the lower boundary of the potential reversal zone.

Forecast:

In the first half of the week, the bullish price movement of the pound is expected to continue until resistance levels are tested. A sideways trading phase along the zone boundaries is likely thereafter. Toward the weekend, increased volatility may emerge, followed by a trend reversal and a resumption of price declines. The downward move is expected to be limited by the projected support level.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 1.3510–1.3560

Support:

• 1.3350–1.3300

Recommendations:

• Buy positions: Limited upward potential and a high risk of losses.
• Sell positions: May be considered after the completion of the upward correction and the emergence of confirmed reversal signals near the resistance zone.

AUD/USD

Analysis:

On the Australian dollar chart against the US dollar, the most notable feature is the unfinished bullish wave pattern originating on September 30 of last year. Price has reached the lower boundary of a major higher-timeframe potential reversal zone. A corrective move is forming within the final wave (C).

Forecast:

Over the next 24 hours, further upward movement is expected, followed by a transition into sideways price action along resistance boundaries. After potential pressure on this zone, a reversal formation may occur. The start of a price decline is more likely toward the end of the week. The downward range is expected to remain above the projected support level.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 0.6720–0.6770

Support:

• 0.6610–0.6560

Recommendations:

• Buy positions: Low upward potential and increased risk of losses.
• Sell positions: May be used in fractional position sizing after reversal signals appear near resistance.

USD/CHF

Analysis:

Since April of last year, Swiss franc quotes on the major pair have continued to form an ascending range. Within its structure, the intermediate wave (B) has been developing over recent months and has not yet reached completion. Price remains confined within a narrow horizontal corridor between opposing zones of different scales.

Forecast:

Over the coming week, sideways movement is expected to persist. A short-term downward correction may occur during the first few days, followed by a possible reversal and a resumption of upward movement. In the event of a trend shift, a brief break below the lower boundary of the support zone cannot be ruled out.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 0.8110–0.8160

Support:

• 0.7890–0.7840

Recommendations:

• Sell positions: Limited potential and elevated risk.
• Buy positions: May be considered after confirmed reversal signals appear near the support zone.

EUR/JPY

Analysis:

Since the end of February last year, an ascending wave structure has been developing on the EUR/JPY pair. On the weekly timeframe, this wave initiated a new leg of the primary trend. Price has reached the lower boundary of a strong potential reversal zone. At present, there are no clear signals of an imminent reversal.

Forecast:

In the first half of the coming week, further price growth is expected, potentially reaching projected resistance levels. A reversal and trend change are more likely closer to the weekend. The decline in prices is expected to be limited by the projected support zone.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 185.70–186.20

Support:

• 182.10–181.60

Recommendations:

• Buy positions: Risky due to limited upward potential.
• Sell positions: May be considered once confirmed reversal signals appear near resistance.

AUD/JPY

Brief Analysis:

Since April of last year, short-term price movements in the AUD/JPY pair have been guided by an upward wave algorithm. At the time of analysis, price is trading within a strong reversal zone and approaching its upper boundary. The wave structure does not yet indicate completion, suggesting the need for a corrective move.

Weekly Forecast:

Over the next couple of days, pressure on the resistance zone is possible, followed by sideways consolidation along the zone. In the second half of the week, a reversal may form, leading to a downward move toward projected support levels.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 107.70–108.20

Support:

• 104.30–103.80

Recommendations:

• Buy positions: Limited upward potential and elevated risk of losses.
• Sell positions: May become viable after confirmed reversal signals appear near the resistance zone.

EUR/CHF

Brief Analysis:

On the EUR/CHF pair chart, the downward wave that began in March of last year continues to form. Since mid-November, prices have been correcting, creating a countertrend correction. Its structure does not yet appear complete.

Weekly Forecast:

During the upcoming week, sideways movement is expected to dominate. A short-term decline toward the support zone cannot be ruled out over the next few days. A renewed upward bias is more likely closer to the weekend.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 0.9400–0.9450

Support:

• 0.9260–0.9210

Recommendations:

• Buy positions: May be considered after confirmed reversal signals emerge.
• Sell positions: Limited potential and elevated risk.

Notes:

In simplified wave analysis (SWA), all waves consist of three parts (A–B–C). On each timeframe, the most recent unfinished wave is analyzed. Expected price movements are indicated by dashed lines.

Warning:

The wave algorithm does not take the time duration of price movements into account.