14.01.202607:27 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: What to pay attention to on January 14? Breakdown of fundamental events for beginners

Review of macroeconomic reports:

Few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Wednesday, and none of them are important. However, recall that last week there were quite a few important reports in the US, yet we saw no strong, trend-driving moves. This week's inflation report also produced almost no market reaction. There were plenty of fundamental events in the first two weeks of the new year as well, but the euro has been trading flat for seven months straight, and the pound has been trading sideways in recent weeks. Volatility for both currency pairs is extremely low.

Analysis of fundamental events:

A number of fundamental events are scheduled for Wednesday. Representatives of the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Federal Reserve will give speeches. However, the impact of their statements on market sentiment may be minimal — or absent altogether. The market currently does not even react to macroeconomic reports that normally shape the stance of central bank officials in the UK, the Eurozone, and the US. There is almost no reaction to fundamental events. Otherwise, Donald Trump's actions would already have led to a total collapse of the US dollar, which has been brewing for several months. Recall that the dollar can still be considered a safe-haven currency for investors — but can a currency be called safe if its country's president openly declares plans to annex Greenland or to back a regime change in Iran?

General conclusions:

On the third trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue trading completely at random. The euro can be traded today in the 1.1655–1.1666 range, and the pound sterling in the 1.3437–1.3446 range. However, even with strong trading signals, we would not expect a significant move. Volatility remains low.

Main rules of the trading system:

1. Signal strength is judged by the time required to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened on false signals near a level, then all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can generate a mass of false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session; after that, all trades must be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, MACD-based signals should ideally be traded only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
6. If two levels are located too close to each other (5–20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
7. After a move of 15–20 pips in the correct direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

What is shown on the charts:

Support and resistance price levels — levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit can be placed near them.

Red lines — channels or trendlines that reflect the current tendency and show which direction is preferable to trade now.

MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always listed in the news calendar) can strongly affect a currency pair's movement. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with maximum caution, or positions should be closed, to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.