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On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued to hover around the 1.1645–1.1648 level. Another consolidation below this area allows for expectations of a continuation of the decline toward the 1.1607–1.1612 support level. Given the current level of trader activity, even this zone does not look like a "near-term target" or an "easily achievable task." A consolidation above 1.1645–1.1648 would work in favor of the European currency and some growth toward the Fibonacci 38.2% level at 1.1686.
The wave picture on the hourly chart remains straightforward. The last completed upward wave failed to break the peak of the previous wave, while the most recent downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the trend remains bearish. In my view, the decline in the pair will not be prolonged or strong, but a break of the bearish trend is now required in order to expect a bullish advance. Based on the current chart structure, such a break would occur above the 1.1700 level.
On Wednesday, neither bulls nor bears had a clear advantage in the market, and the strength of the moves does not allow the word "attacked" to be used in any context. The market is almost completely immobilized, and no news of any kind is able to move it. Yesterday in the U.S., the Producer Price Index and retail sales data were released. Neither report managed to interest traders. Overnight, it became known that a military operation against Iran had been canceled for the time being. During a White House briefing, Donald Trump said he had received information from reliable sources that executions of protesters by Iranian authorities had ceased. "We will closely monitor the situation and verify the information received. If it turns out to be false, a military operation will be carried out. Targets for attack have been identified," the U.S. president said. As of now, the market has not reacted to this news either. The spring in the market has been compressed to unimaginable levels. Sooner or later, it will "snap."
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has returned to the 1.1649–1.1680 support level. Another rebound from this area would work in favor of the EU currency and some growth toward the 0.0% corrective level at 1.1829. A consolidation below the 1.1649–1.1680 support level would increase the chances of a continuation of the decline toward the next Fibonacci 38.2% level at 1.1538. A bearish divergence has formed on the CCI indicator, which allows for expectations of another decline.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, professional players opened 3,515 long positions and closed 1,832 short positions. Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and his policies, and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 298,000, while short positions amount to 135,000. This represents more than a twofold advantage for the bulls.
For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players were reducing short positions and increasing longs. Then the "shutdown" began, and now we see the same picture again: professional traders continue to build long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they create numerous problems that will have long-term and structural consequences for the U.S. economy, such as deterioration in the labor market. Traders fear a loss of Fed independence in 2026 under pressure from Trump, amid Jerome Powell's resignation.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:
On January 15, the economic calendar contains four events, among which only German GDP is of interest. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday will be weak.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:
Selling the pair was possible after a rebound from the 1.1686 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1648 and 1.1612. These trades can be kept open today. Buying will become possible today either on a rebound from the 1.1607–1.1612 level on the hourly chart or after a close above 1.1645–1.1648, with targets at 1.1686 and 1.1731.
Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1492–1.1805 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.
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