21.01.202619:07 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on January 21st (U.S. Session)

Trade Review and Trading Tips for the European Currency

The test of the 1.1710 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly downward from the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

Today's speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde did not attract much interest from market participants. Lagarde's comments did not clarify the timing or scale of future monetary policy adjustments, and investors apparently decided to focus more on new data from the United States.

U.S. data on pending home sales and construction spending are expected, which will help assess supply and demand trends. An increase in these indicators may point to economic growth, while a decline could signal a slowdown.

However, most attention is likely focused on U.S. President Donald Trump's speech in Davos, where he will outline his position on the situation around Greenland. Trump's speech will certainly influence trading in the short term. An escalation of the conflict and threats of new tariffs against the EU would lead to another sell-off of the dollar and a strengthening of the euro.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought if the price reaches the 1.1719 level (green line on the chart), with a growth target at 1.1763. At 1.1763, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Further strong euro growth is also possible.Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1696 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1719 and 1.1763 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1696 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1660, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair would return if Trump abandons the Greenland issue and trade tariffs.Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1719 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1696 and 1.1660 can be expected.

What's on the Chart

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.