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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair reversed in favor of the British pound on Thursday and resumed its growth after consolidating above the 1.3437–1.3470 level. Thus, on Friday, price growth may continue toward the next resistance level at 1.3526–1.3539. A consolidation of the pair back below the 1.3437–1.3470 level would work in favor of the U.S. currency and a new decline toward the support level at 1.3352–1.3362.
The wave picture has shifted to a "bullish" one. The most recently completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the new upward wave broke the previous high. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent weeks, but the news background in the United States is even worse. It is difficult for the bulls to attack, but Donald Trump regularly provides them with support.
The news background on Thursday could well have resulted in another strengthening of the U.S. currency. Donald Trump canceled tariffs on the European Union, stated that he does not intend to seize Greenland by military means, and the U.S. GDP report for the third quarter showed stronger growth than traders had expected. Thus, everything seemed to favor the dollar—except for one thing. The market is tired of dancing to the tune of the U.S. president. Trump changes his decisions regularly (most of which are either empty threats or outright bluff). At first, traders simply could not keep up with the rapidly changing events, and then they began to ignore them. In my view, this is quite natural. Today, the UK released a report on changes in retail sales volumes in December, which traders also ignored. Ahead are purchasing managers' indices in the manufacturing and services sectors. Meanwhile, Donald Trump once again criticized Jerome Powell and said that he would not like to see him remain on the FOMC after the end of his term as Fed Chair. Let me remind you that Powell can remain on the committee until mid-2028. Pressure on the Federal Reserve persists, which does not add optimism for dollar bulls.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has returned to the support level of 1.3369–1.3435. A rebound from this zone would once again work in favor of the pound and a resumption of growth toward the next Fibonacci level at 127.2% – 1.3795. A consolidation below the 1.3369–1.3435 level would allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and a decline toward the support level at 1.3118–1.3140. No emerging divergences are observed today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more bullish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 2,517, while the number of short positions decreased by 2,751. The gap between the number of long and short positions currently stands at essentially 79,000 versus 104,000 and is narrowing rapidly. Bears have dominated in recent months, but the pound appears to have already exhausted its downward potential. At the same time, the situation with euro contracts is the exact opposite. I still do not believe in a "bearish" trend for the pound.
In my view, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency may occasionally enjoy demand in the market—but not in the long term. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp deterioration in the labor market, and the Federal Reserve is forced to ease monetary policy in order to curb rising unemployment and stimulate job creation. U.S. military aggression also does not add optimism for dollar bulls.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
On January 23, the economic calendar contains six entries. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday may persist throughout the day.
GBP/USD forecast and trading advice:
Selling the pair is possible today if there is a rebound from the 1.3526–1.3539 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.3437–1.3470. Selling is also possible in the event of a close below the 1.3437–1.3470 level. Buying positions could be opened after a close above the 1.3437–1.3470 level, with a target at 1.3526–1.3539. Today, long positions can be kept open.
Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
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