26.01.202608:54 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: What to Pay Attention to on January 26? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Monday. In the entire Eurozone, only the business climate index for Germany will be released, which is a secondary report. In the U.S., a relatively important report on durable goods orders could provoke market reactions. However, it is worth noting that both currency pairs showed strong growth last week, driven solely by events related to Greenland, Donald Trump, and the European Union. Both the euro and the pound have been in a flat or correction for months, but now the market has lifted the unofficial moratorium on "selling the dollar."

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There are no fundamental events scheduled for today, and all the most important events have already occurred last week. Donald Trump, in his characteristic manner, imposed tariffs, then canceled them three days later after the opposing party made concessions. It remains unclear what these concessions were and what NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Donald Trump agreed upon, but the tariffs will be canceled starting February 1. At the same time, traders still need to understand the European Union's and Denmark's positions on the agreements related to Greenland. As of now, no one knows what that position is. Given the speed of events in 2026, we assume that the new week is an opportunity for Trump to "stir things up" somewhere else on the planet. Perhaps this week, the U.S. president will focus his attention on Iran.

General Conclusions:

Throughout the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue their upward movement. The euro can be traded today at 1.1851, while the British pound can be traded in the area of 1.3643-1.3652. Of course, the dollar will not be falling every day now. There will be pauses, corrections, and pullbacks. But we still expect growth in the euro and pound in the medium term. This means that potentially long positions are much more relevant than shorts.

Main rules of the trading system:

1. Signal strength is judged by the time required to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened on false signals near a level, then all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can generate a mass of false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session; after that, all trades must be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, MACD-based signals should ideally be traded only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
6. If two levels are located too close to each other (5–20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
7. After a move of 15–20 pips in the correct direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

What is shown on the charts:

Support and resistance price levels — levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit can be placed near them.

Red lines — channels or trendlines that reflect the current tendency and show which direction is preferable to trade now.

MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always listed in the news calendar) can strongly affect a currency pair's movement. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with maximum caution, or positions should be closed, to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.