26.01.202612:27 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Trump's geopolitical push spurs gains in gold, EUR/USD

Trump continues to pursue his objectives by the "one step back, two steps forward" method, which is clearly manifested in his latest statements after he "promised" Europe at the end of last week that he would not seize Greenland.

The US president shows no restraint and is again threatening his northern neighbor, Canada, with 100% tariffs if it reaches a trade deal with China. This indicates he will pursue his aims by any means, following the "one step back, two steps forward" approach. By intermittently easing pressure on Greenland, Latin America, and Canada, he repeatedly resurrects his demands, approaching his goals from multiple directions.

Of course, in such circumstances, financial markets cannot form a definitive long?term view and instead oscillate with the evolving situation.

So, on the wave of geopolitical risks and the growing sense that in the new world dollar hegemony will likely take a back seat and gold could briefly serve as an international means of payment, central banks and other major market players are increasing physical gold purchases, thus pushing futures prices higher. The $5,000 mark was breached this morning, and after a technical consolidation above that level, further gains can be expected.

Also notable is a radical shift in investor attitudes toward the dollar. The risk that, in a frenzied response to Trump, Europe may start dumping previously purchased US Treasuries — combined with expectations over the nomination of a new Fed chair — is contributing to a noticeable decline in interest in dollar assets and, of course, the US currency itself.

Regarding the Fed chair nomination, consensus expects that, against the backdrop of criminal allegations by Trump against Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the nominee will be a president?loyal individual who favors a more dovish monetary stance. In that case, the market should expect not two rate cuts as currently priced, but possibly three or four. Those prospects are also a key foundation for the market's pessimistic view of the US dollar in the FX market.

What to expect from markets today?

I believe the current broad trends for gold, the dollar, cryptocurrencies, and equity markets will persist.

Daily forecast:

GOLD

Spot gold has broken through the critical psychological $5,000/oz level. Given the geopolitical backdrop described above, further price gains can be expected after a local pullback to about 5,025.00 toward 5,200.00. A potential buy level is 5,044.00.

EUR/USD

The euro/dollar pair is rising amid dollar weakness driven by geopolitical developments. After a brief consolidation, the pair could rise above 1.1900 and reach 1.2000. A suggested buy level is 1.1905.