03.02.202607:28 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on February 3

The dollar will continue to strengthen its positions against the euro, pound, Japanese yen, and other currencies.

Yesterday's positive data showing that the ISM Manufacturing Index for the US returned above the 50-point mark sparked a new wave of purchases of the US dollar. Traders interpreted this as a signal of potential improvements in economic prospects, which in turn fueled expectations for a future stable policy from the Federal Reserve. The strengthening of the American currency has put pressure on other currencies, especially those considered riskier. Overall, the market's reaction to the ISM data indicates increased sensitivity to signals about the state of the US economy and its impact on global financial flows. Further developments will depend on incoming data and the rhetoric of Fed representatives.

Today promises to be eventful in the financial markets. In the first half of the day, special attention will be paid to the release of consumer price index data from France, which is an important inflation indicator for the Eurozone. Exceeding forecasted values could provoke expectations for a more aggressive monetary policy from the European Central Bank, potentially strengthening the euro. Conversely, lower-than-expected figures could put pressure on the single currency, heightening concerns about deflation.

An equally important event will be the publication of unemployment change data from Spain. A significant reduction in the number of unemployed could serve as a signal of economic recovery in Spain, supporting the euro. Otherwise, a substantial increase in unemployment could raise concerns about the sustainability of the country's economic growth, negatively impacting trader sentiment.

As for the pound, there are no significant data scheduled for the UK today, so the pair may continue its recovery after yesterday's sell-off.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it's best to act according to the Mean Reversion strategy. If the figures are significantly above or below economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy is preferable.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Buy on a breakout above the level of 1.1827, which may lead to an increase in the euro towards the levels of 1.1868 and 1.1908;
• Sell on a breakout below the level of 1.1785, which may lead to a decrease in the euro towards the levels of 1.1740 and 1.1705;

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Buy on a breakout above the level of 1.3692, which may lead to a rise in the pound towards the levels of 1.3715 and 1.3753;
• Sell on a breakout below the level of 1.3668, which may result in a fall in the pound towards the levels of 1.3649 and 1.3627;

For the USD/JPY Pair

• Buy on a breakout above the level of 155.67, which may lead to a rise in the dollar towards the levels of 155.99 and 156.30;
• Sell on a breakout below the level of 155.32, which may lead to a decline in the dollar towards the levels of 154.95 and 154.67;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1826 on a return below this level;
• Look for long positions after a failed breakout above 1.1790 on a return to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3694 on a return below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3660 on a return to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.7056 on a return below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 0.6985 on a return to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3688 on a return below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3648 on a return to this level;