03.02.202615:30 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Where to expect Bitcoin's bottom

While the crypto market is experiencing a rapid recovery, seemingly preparing for another plunge, Galaxy Digital estimates BTC could eventually fall to $56,000.

The firm sees Bitcoin gradually moving toward a major support zone around $56–58k in the coming weeks or months. On the negative side, BTC has already fallen about 38% from its ATH, a clear sign of a bear market. Some 46% of all BTC holders are currently in the red, and the 50?week moving average has been breached, further reinforcing the bearish structure and putting significant pressure on holders.

Particularly worrying is the lack of correlation with traditional safe?haven assets such as gold and silver. Historically, in periods of macroeconomic instability investors flock into these assets, driving their prices higher. Bitcoin's failure to show a similar reaction suggests it is not yet widely perceived as a true safe?haven asset.

The psychological factor is also important. The fact that a large share of BTC holders, including major institutional investors, are losing money could trigger further selling waves, exacerbating the slump.

One of the key drivers of the current situation is negative returns for ETF investors. Buying Bitcoin at high prices and then suffering a price drop has produced losses that may prompt additional selling and strengthen the downtrend. The need to realize losses to support financial metrics could become an extra impetus for sell?offs, adding pressure to the market.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $80,200, which would open a direct path to $83,100 and then to $85,600. The farther target is around $87,900; a break above that would signal attempts to restore the bull market. In case of a decline, buyers are expected at $77,400. A move back below that area could quickly push BTC toward $75,100. The far downside target is $72,100.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $2,466 opens a direct path to $2,585. The farther target is around $2,684; surpassing that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. In case of a decline, buyers are expected at $2,301. A move back below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,159. The far downside target is $2,017.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.