04.02.202614:01 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Rates should be cut rapidly

The US dollar appeared to respond cautiously to remarks by Federal Reserve official Steven Miran that the absence of strong price pressures in the economy means policy rates he describes as restrictive should be eased again this year.

"I'm probably looking for a little bit more than a point of interest-rate cuts over the course of the year," Miran said on Tuesday.

Miran disagreed with the Fed's decision last week to hold rates, arguing for a quarter-point cut. Late last year, when the Fed enacted a series of quarter-point reductions, he voted against those moves in favor of larger, half-point cuts.

He said a modest easing would spur investment and consumer demand, helping to sustain economic growth amid uncertainty. Miran warned that an overly cautious Fed risks missing opportunities to stimulate growth and urged bolder action to avoid larger economic costs down the road. His comments reflect rising market expectations for a more accommodative and effective monetary stance.

"When I look at underlying inflation, I don't really see a lot of very strong price pressures in the economy," Miran said. He said that he did not see large demand?supply imbalances warranting a monetary?policy response and therefore believed rates were too high, largely because of measurement issues rather than genuine price pressures.

As noted earlier, the dollar has weakened against a range of risk assets, including the euro and the pound. It is unlikely, however, that the currency's move was a direct one?to?one reaction to Miran's remarks.

A technical outlook for EUR/USD suggests that buyers should consider reclaiming 1.1870. That would open the way to test 1.1910. From there a move to 1.1950 is possible, although advancing beyond that without support from major players would be difficult. The extended target is the high at 1.1980. On a decline, meaningful buying interest is likely near 1.1825. If buyers do not appear there, it would be prudent to wait for a new low at 1.1780 or to open long positions from 1.1730.

As for GBP/USD, buyers of the pound sterling should capture the nearest resistance at 1.3735. Only that will allow them to target 1.3784, above which a breakout would be challenging. The extended target is around 1.3810. If the pair falls, bears will try to seize control at 1.3680. If they succeed, a break of that range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and could push GBP/USD down to 1.3650 with scope to extend to 1.3615.