06.02.202606:59 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: What to Pay Attention to on February 6? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday, and almost none of them are significant. The only notable report we can highlight is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Still, the market's reaction to it may only follow if the actual value deviates significantly from the forecast. The industrial production report from Germany can also be noted, but this week, Europe has seen many more significant events and reports that the market has ignored.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events of Friday, the speech by Federal Reserve representative Philip Jefferson stands out, but it is unlikely to have any impact on the market. Last week, the Fed meeting took place, and this week, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank held meetings. Traders have already received all the necessary information. The Fed does not plan to ease monetary policy in the near future. The same applies to the ECB. The BoE was on the verge of cutting the key rate but ultimately left it unchanged. In all three cases, central banks are guided by inflation indicators. In the U.S., inflation is elevated, so further easing could accelerate it even more. In the UK, inflation is well above the target level, suggesting no rate cut. In the Eurozone, inflation is below the target level, but not enough to warrant immediate policy easing.

Overall Conclusions:

During the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade very calmly, taking a break from a busy week. The euro can be traded today from the areas of 1.1830-1.1837 and 1.1745-1.1754, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3529-1.3543. The macroeconomic data planned for Friday in the U.S. will not be released; the NonFarm Payrolls and unemployment rate reports have been postponed to next Wednesday.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it takes to form (rebound or breaking through the level). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can generate numerous false signals or no signals at all. In any case, it is best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trades are opened during the time period between the start of the European session and until the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be manually closed.
5. On the hourly timeframe, signals from the MACD indicator should ideally be traded only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (ranging from 5 to 20 pips), they should be considered as a support or resistance area.
7. After moving 15-20 pips in the correct direction, it is advisable to set the Stop Loss to break-even.

What's on the Charts:

• Support and resistance levels are targets for opening buy or sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
• Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading now.
• The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and signal line – serves as a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
• Important speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or it is advised to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.
• Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing sound money management are the keys to long-term trading success.