06.02.202608:17 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on February 6

The euro and the Japanese yen held their ground, while the British pound fell sharply against the dollar.

As it became known, yesterday the European Central Bank and the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged. The ECB stated that inflation is under control, while British politicians noted that they would achieve similar results by April of this year.

In their statement, ECB representatives emphasized that the latest inflation data are in line with their forecasts and are expected to remain around the target level of 2% going forward. Special attention was given to sustained wage growth and the normalization of supply chains, which the bank believes are key factors in containing inflationary pressure.

As for today's data, the first half of the day is expected to be filled with economic news from Germany that could significantly impact markets. The publication of industrial production change data and trade balance indicators is expected. These indicators are key metrics for the health of Europe's largest economy and often serve as benchmarks for assessing the overall trajectory of the Eurozone. Positive figures could signal a recovery or at least a stabilization of production capacities, while negative dynamics may indicate ongoing issues.

Regarding the British pound, Halifax, one of the leading mortgage lenders in the UK, is expected to publish the Halifax House Price Index for the UK. This indicator is traditionally considered a barometer of the British real estate market, reflecting housing price dynamics and indirectly assessing the purchasing power of the population and overall economic activity. The release of the Halifax House Price Index data could shed light on the current situation in this sector, which is a significant component of the UK economy.

Simultaneously, attention will be focused on the speech of BoE Monetary Policy Committee member Huw Pill. In the context of the recent decisions by the BoE, statements on the potential reduction in inflation and the possibility of policy revision may exert further pressure on the British pound.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is best to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data significantly exceed or fall below economists' forecasts, using the Momentum strategy would be preferable.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For EUR/USD

• Long positions on breakout of level 1.1810 could lead to euro growth to around 1.1850 and 1.1870;
• Short positions on breakout of level 1.1780 could lead to the euro declining to around 1.1740 and 1.1710;

For GBP/USD

• Longs on breakout of level 1.3590 could lead to pound growth to around 1.3630 and 1.3661;
• Shorts on a breakout of level 1.3550 could lead to a decline of the pound to around 1.3511 and 1.3484;

For USD/JPY

• Longs on breakout of level 157.05 could lead to dollar growth to around 157.40 and 157.70;
• Shorts on breakout of level 156.70 could lead to dollar sell-off to around 156.40 and 156.07;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return):

For EUR/USD

• Shorts will be sought after a failed breakout above 1.1805 on a return below this level;
• Longs will be sought after a failed breakout below 1.1779 on a return to this level;

For GBP/USD

• Shorts will be sought after a failed breakout above 1.3577 on a return below this level;
• Longs will be sought after a failed breakout below 1.3537 on a return to this level;

For AUD/USD

• Shorts will be sought after a failed breakout above 0.6967 on a return below this level;
• Longs will be sought after a failed breakout below 0.6935 on a return to this level;

For USD/CAD

• Shorts will be sought after a failed breakout above 1.3705 on a return below this level;
• Longs will be sought after a failed breakout below 1.3683 on a return to this level;