09.02.202607:32 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: What to Pay Attention to on February 9? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday. The calendars for Germany, the UK, the Eurozone, and the U.S. are empty. Thus, traders will have nothing to react to throughout the day.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

The only fundamental event on Monday is European Central Bank Chair Christine Lagarde's speech. The ECB meeting took place last Thursday, and the ECB made it clear that it is not concerned about the slowdown in inflation to 1.7% and does not intend to implement monetary easing in the near future. Therefore, Lagarde's new speech is unlikely to provide the market with any new information. Additionally, today there will be speeches from Fed representatives Christopher Waller, Stephen Moore, and Raphael Bostic, but we do not expect any significant statements from them either. The Fed meeting occurred a week and a half ago, and since then, no important data have been published in the U.S. Reports on the labor market, unemployment, and inflation will be published this week. Following their release, we can expect new comments from the Federal Reserve officials.

General Conclusions:

On the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade very calmly, as there is no news today. The euro can be traded from the area of 1.1830-1.1837, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3643-1.3652. Throughout the day, extremely weak movements are likely to be observed.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it takes to form (rebound or breaking through the level). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can generate numerous false signals or no signals at all. In any case, it is best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trades are opened during the time period between the start of the European session and until the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be manually closed.
5. On the hourly timeframe, signals from the MACD indicator should ideally be traded only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (ranging from 5 to 20 pips), they should be considered as a support or resistance area.
7. After moving 15-20 pips in the correct direction, it is advisable to set the Stop Loss to break-even.

What's on the Charts:

• Support and resistance levels are targets for opening buy or sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
• Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading now.
• The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and signal line – serves as a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
• Important speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or it is advised to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.
• Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing sound money management are the keys to long-term trading success.