10.02.202606:55 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: What to Focus on February 10? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Tuesday. The most important release today is the US retail sales report. Additionally, one labor market report—the ADP report—will be published, but we remind traders that it has recently started being released weekly. Last week, the monthly ADP report showed extremely low values. Therefore, reports on Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate, scheduled for release on Wednesday, are now highly anticipated.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Tuesday, only a few speeches by Federal Reserve officials stand out. However, in our opinion, until the major reports on inflation, the labor market, and unemployment are released, expectations for a shift in the Fed's views on monetary policy should be low. The Fed is currently focused on maintaining the key interest rate to allow the effects of the last three rate cuts to be fully realized. Thus, hints of new monetary easing may only emerge after weaker labor-market data or slowing inflation. The US dollar remains in a very difficult position even without any easing of Fed policy.

General Conclusions:

On the second trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade very calmly, as there are few important events today. The euro can be traded in the range of 1.1899-1.1908, while the pound sterling can be traded in the range of 1.3643-1.3652. Throughout the day, very weak movements may be observed, but both currency pairs may continue to rise this week.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it takes to form (rebound or breaking through the level). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can generate numerous false signals or no signals at all. In any case, it is best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trades are opened during the time period between the start of the European session and until the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be manually closed.
5. On the hourly timeframe, signals from the MACD indicator should ideally be traded only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (ranging from 5 to 20 pips), they should be considered as a support or resistance area.
7. After moving 15-20 pips in the correct direction, it is advisable to set the Stop Loss to break-even.

What's on the Charts:

• Support and resistance levels are targets for opening buy or sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
• Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading now.
• The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and signal line – serves as a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
• Important speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or it is advised to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.
• Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing sound money management are the keys to long-term trading success.