10.02.202609:10 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Stock market on February 10: S&P 500 and NASDAQ reach fresh highs

Last Friday, equity indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.47%, while the Nasdaq 100 jumped by 0.90%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened by 0.04%.

The equity market extended its advance as a rebound in US technology stocks gained traction, easing pressure after concerns about excessive AI spending. The MSCI All Country World Index, one of the broadest gauges of global equities, added 0.2% to a record high, while Asian equities climbed by 1.1% to all-time highs, supported by tech names such as SoftBank Group Corp.

Elsewhere, the yuan rallied to its strongest level since May 2023 after reports that China asked banks to limit holdings of US Treasuries. The dollar declined sharply, and gold pulled back after two days of gains as investors booked profits on a volatile market still searching for a clear direction after a historic rout. Silver also fell.

The stock market's advance signals a reduction in fears around AI-driven disruption — the very concerns that peaked over the past two weeks and hammered software developers and clouded the outlook for major tech firms pouring astronomical sums into breakthrough innovations.

At the same time, traders are positioning ahead of key US economic releases that could shift expectations for the Fed's rate path. Importantly, recent volatility has already removed some excess nervousness, especially in the richly valued AI-exposed tech segment. Positioning is now clearer, risk premia look more rational, and markets are entering this phase from a healthier base. Strong US prints could trigger further buying.

Negative factors for the dollar continue to accumulate, and China's warning that its banks should limit Treasury purchases is another reminder why US assets look less attractive than before. In China, the currency's strength came against the backdrop of a broader diversification away from US sovereign debt. Such moves could accelerate capital repatriation into Chinese assets, providing a fundamental tailwind for the yuan.

The yen also strengthened by about 0.4%, trading near JPY 155 per dollar after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's decisive election victory over the weekend. Bitcoin slipped below the $70,000 mark.

As for the technical outlook for the S&P 500, the immediate task for buyers today is to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,961. Breaking above that level would signal further upside and open the path to $6,975. Another priority for bulls is to secure control above $6,989, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downside move amid waning risk appetite, buyers must defend around $6,946. A break below that level could quickly push the instrument back to $6,930 and open the way to $6,914.