12.02.202609:08 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on February 12. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the price at 1.1907 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the euro's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell euros.

The dollar demonstrated significant strength. This was due to easing concerns about a potential rise in unemployment in the United States. The published data indicated the creation of 130,000 new jobs in the US in January and a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. This unexpected rise in employment reflects a more resilient US labor market than many experts had anticipated. The report's implications immediately affected the currency market. The substantial rise in the value of the US dollar reflects increased investor confidence in the US economy relative to other major global powers.

Today, there are no reports from the Eurozone, so attention will be on the speeches of two influential figures from the European Central Bank: Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel and ECB Board member Isabel Schnabel. Statements from high-ranking representatives of the central bank, such as the head of Germany's central bank and a member of its governing council, serve as a guide to understanding the ECB's future course. Their speeches often cover a wide range of relevant economic issues, from inflation levels and the state of the labor market to the growth rate of the Eurozone economy and the impact of geopolitical factors on financial stability. This presents a valuable opportunity for investors and analysts to gain clearer insights into the ECB's potential future actions. Particular attention is usually paid to the remarks of Joachim Nagel, leading the central bank of the largest economy in the Eurozone, as his position often reflects broader trends and sentiments within the ECB itself.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy euros upon reaching the entry point around 1.1870 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1899. At the level of 1.1899, I intend to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can expect the euro to grow today, in line with the established trend. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1853 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase towards the opposing levels of 1.1870 and 1.1899 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the level of 1.1853 (red line on the chart) is reached. The target will be at 1.1822, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today is expected to return as part of a minor correction. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1870 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease towards the opposing levels of 1.1853 and 1.1822 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

The thin green line represents the entry price at which one can buy the trading instrument;

The thick green line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

The thin red line represents the entry price at which one can sell the trading instrument;

The thick red line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

The MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very careful when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.