16.02.202613:29 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Bitcoin walks the edge of the abyss

Bitcoin is recovering after the January–February storm. From its October highs, BTC/USD has slumped more than 40%, halving the crypto market's capitalization. Market participants are now on edge, awaiting any sign of trend stabilization. A break of support at 60,000 could be catastrophic for digital assets.

That level is not just a round psychological mark — it concentrates large sell orders in BTC-linked derivatives and holds a huge share of loans collateralized by Bitcoin. Those loans are structured so that lenders automatically seize collateral in downside moves, which in turn amplifies price declines. From a technical perspective, the 60,000 area coincides with the 200-day moving average. A breach would signal a resumed downtrend with a high probability of falls toward 50,000 and below.

There is, however, some good news. Glassnode reports that wallet holders holding 1,000 BTC and above — so?called crypto whales — have begun actively buying coins. In early February, they accumulated 53k coins worth about $5 billion. Their earlier actions were a major driver of BTC/USD declines: since mid?December, they had sold 170k coins valued at $11 billion.

A shift by whales from shorts to longs could indicate distribution of speculative positions within the downtrend rather than pure accumulation. If this is a distribution and not an accumulation, the chance that the consolidation will end with a break of the bearish trend is higher than the chance it will continue. The crucial caveat is that Bitcoin must not drop below 60,000 — below that level, not even large players can save it.

The lower the price falls, the more bears appear in the market. In this respect, BTC/USD's fourth consecutive five?day negative close lets many investors draw gloomy conclusions for the token's outlook.

Bitcoin is most sensitive to US tech stock indices. Continued rotation in the US stock markets and a weak weekly performance for the Nasdaq Composite exert significant downward pressure on Bitcoin.

Conversely, the inability of precious metals to recover has bolstered BTC bears. For a long period, capital flowed from crypto into gold, silver, and similar assets; after the January sell-offs, investors began withdrawing funds from those metals. Bitcoin's consolidation could mean that digital assets are again among investors' allocation targets.

Technically, the daily BTC/USD chart shows no signs that range trading has ended. In such a situation, the most sensible strategy is to wait. It makes sense to place pending orders: a sell order at 65,000 and a buy order at 72,000. Execution of one of these orders can provide a trigger to open positions.