16.02.202619:33 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: GBP/USD. Smart Money. The Pound Has Found Balance

The GBP/USD pair has fully filled the latest bullish imbalance (100%), reacted to its lower boundary, climbed to the upper boundary of the pattern, and then movement stalled. Thus, a bullish signal was formed for the pound as well, as I expected. However, at the moment, this signal is not providing traders with any real follow-through. Both the euro and the pound are barely trading, spending most of their time within a narrow range. The bullish signal has not been canceled, and imbalance 14 has not been invalidated. For now, all that remains is to wait.

In my view, the news background supports the bulls. The U.S. labor market remains in a state that can hardly be called positive, and Donald Trump continues to wage economic and political battles against the entire world, including his own country. There are currently no bearish patterns, nor are there clear reasons for them to emerge. For bearish structures to form, there must be both justification and active participation from sellers. And what reasons do the bears currently have to come out of hiding?

Interestingly, Donald Trump appears to be clashing even with his own government. Not long ago, the House of Representatives voted to terminate the state of emergency introduced by Trump in February of last year, which allowed him to impose trade tariffs unilaterally. The House also voted to block new tariffs against Canada, with at least six Republicans supporting both decisions. Thus, Trump appears to be losing support even within his own party, not to mention public opinion—his first-year job approval rating stands at 29%.

The bullish trend in the pound remains intact, as confirmed by the chart structure. Since November 5 alone, traders have had at least three opportunities to open long positions, and this week they received a fourth. Bullish signals are forming regularly, while bearish patterns have not appeared for quite some time. In my view, this is not a situation where one needs to overcomplicate matters. There are currently no signs of a bearish offensive. I see no reason to consider short positions.

On Monday, the news background was virtually absent, which partly explains the market's inactivity. However, the market was not particularly active last week either, despite a substantial flow of news from both the UK and the U.S. Another pause has settled over the market, and traders can only wait.

In the United States, the overall news background remains such that, in the long term, it is difficult to expect anything other than dollar weakness. The situation in the U.S. remains quite complicated. Labor market statistics continue to disappoint more often than they impress. Three of the last four FOMC meetings ended with dovish decisions. Trump's military actions, threats toward Denmark, Mexico, Cuba, Colombia, Iran, EU countries, Canada, and South Korea, criminal proceedings against Jerome Powell, a new government shutdown, and the scandal involving the U.S. elite in the Epstein case all add to the picture of a political and structural crisis in the country. In my opinion, the bulls have everything they need to continue their advance throughout 2026.

A bearish trend would require a strong and consistently positive news background for the dollar—something that is difficult to expect under Donald Trump. Moreover, the U.S. president himself does not need a strong dollar, as it would keep the trade balance in deficit. Therefore, I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound. Too many risk factors continue to weigh heavily on the dollar. If new bearish patterns emerge, a potential decline in the pound could be considered, but at present there are none.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

• UK – Unemployment Rate (07:00 UTC)
• UK – Average Hourly Earnings (07:00 UTC)
• UK – Claimant Count Change (07:00 UTC)
• U.S. – ADP Employment Change (13:15 UTC)

On February 17, the economic calendar includes four events, with the UK reports generating particular interest. The news background is likely to influence market sentiment at least during the morning session.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

For the pound, the picture remains bullish. A new buy signal has formed and has not been invalidated. The bulls have launched a new advance, which may turn out to be prolonged and exhausting. They are not attempting a blitzkrieg. Why rush, if the dollar can be sold gradually?

Since the bullish trend remains unquestionable, traders should continue trading to the upside based on clear patterns and signals. Imbalance 14, as expected, provided such an opportunity. As a target for potential growth, I previously considered the 1.3725 level—this level has already been reached, but the pound may rise much higher in 2026. There are no limits. The nearest notable target appears to be 1.4246, the peak from June 2021.