17.02.202611:10 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/USD Forecast on February 17, 2026

Throughout Monday, the EUR/USD pair continued its decline and on Tuesday morning reached the 50.0% corrective level at 1.1830. A rebound from this level would favor the euro and some growth toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1889. A consolidation below 1.1830 would favor the US dollar and further decline toward the 61.8% corrective level at 1.1770.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple. The last completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, while the last upward wave did not break the previous low. Thus, the trend remains bullish. The bulls have taken a short pause within a large-scale advance that would have been impossible without Donald Trump. Trump has escalated tensions both globally and within the United States to the limit, and markets continue reacting by fleeing the risky US currency with uncertain economic prospects.

On Monday, the news background was effectively absent. The United States observed Presidents' Day, and in the European Union only one report was released, which could not support the bulls even if one tried. Industrial production for December fell by 1.4% month-over-month. Although forecasts were even worse, a nearly 1.5% decline in output could not support the euro. In the United States, all major banks and trading venues were closed. This evening, the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting will be published, at which it was decided to keep monetary policy parameters unchanged. At first glance, the FOMC minutes could support the US dollar, as the decision was not dovish for the first time in four meetings. However, three weeks have passed since that meeting, and the Nonfarm Payrolls report, unemployment rate, and Consumer Price Index data have since been released — all of which could significantly alter the sentiment of FOMC members. Therefore, I would not consider the Fed minutes to be a particularly important event.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 100.0% corrective level at 1.1919 on the new Fibonacci grid and reversed in favor of the US dollar. Thus, the decline may continue toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1813. A consolidation above 1.1919 would increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the 1.2040–1.2066 resistance level. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 16,403 long positions and closed 541 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and his policies, and it continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 319,000, while short positions amount to 138,000 — more than a twofold advantage for the bulls.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players reduced short positions and increased long positions. Then a "shutdown" began, but now we are seeing the same pattern again: professional traders continue to increase their long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they are causing numerous problems that will have long-term and structural consequences for the United States — for example, a serious deterioration in the labor market (2025) and a decline in global reputation. Traders are also concerned about a potential loss of Federal Reserve independence in 2026 and Donald Trump's geopolitical ambitions.

News Calendar for the US and the Eurozone:

• Eurozone — Germany Consumer Price Index (07:00 UTC).
• Eurozone — ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany and the EU (10:00 UTC).
• US — ADP Employment Change (13:15 UTC).

On February 17, the economic calendar contains three entries, none of which are particularly important. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday may be very limited.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling the pair was possible after a close below 1.1889 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1830. The target was reached this morning. New sales may be considered after a close below 1.1830 with a target of 1.1770. Buying may be considered on a rebound from 1.1830 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1889.

Fibonacci retracement grids are built from 1.1805–1.1578 on the hourly chart and from 1.1919–1.1471 on the 4-hour chart.