17.02.202618:33 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on February 17th (U.S. Session)

Trade Review and Advice for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 153.07 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for buying the dollar. However, the pair did not develop a strong upward move.

In the second half of the day, speeches by Federal Reserve representatives Michael S. Barr and Mary Daly are expected. Their comments on recent inflation data and the overall state of the U.S. economy will be carefully analyzed for signals regarding the Fed's next steps. Amid current uncertainty about inflation dynamics and a possible slowdown in economic growth, markets will look for any hints about the future direction of monetary policy. At present, many expect the Fed to begin cutting rates before this summer. If such signals emerge from central bank officials, pressure on the dollar could increase significantly, leading to a decline in USD/JPY.

Particular attention will be paid to how Fed members interpret the latest inflation data, which present a mixed picture. If inflation expectations remain elevated, this could strengthen the case for a tighter policy stance. Conversely, any signs of slowing inflation may support a more accommodative approach.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 153.17 (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 153.65 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 153.65, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from that level. Upward movement in the pair today may occur following a hawkish stance from Bowman.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 152.85 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. Growth toward 153.17 and 153.65 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 152.85 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 152.27, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point move from that level. Pressure on the pair may return in the event of weak economic reports.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 153.17 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 152.85 and 152.27 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line – suggested Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line – suggested Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.