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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Friday rebounded from the support level of 1.3437–1.3470, reversed in favor of the British currency, and climbed toward the resistance level of 1.3526–1.3539. Today, a rebound from this zone would favor the U.S. dollar and a resumption of the decline toward 1.3437–1.3470. A close above the 1.3526–1.3539 level would allow traders to expect continued growth toward the 1.3595–1.3620 level.
The wave situation remains "bearish." The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous high, while the last downward wave broke the previous low. To shift the trend back to "bullish," a consolidation above the last high at 1.3730 or the formation of two consecutive bullish waves is required.
The news background for the pound has been weak in recent months, but the U.S. news flow has also rarely brought genuine optimism to traders. Recently, the pound had been going through a "black streak," but Donald Trump regularly lends support to the bulls.
Friday's news backdrop left traders with little choice. UK business activity levels in February exceeded expectations. Retail sales volumes rose by 1.8% in January versus forecasts of +0.2%. Meanwhile, U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter reached only 1.4%, compared to market expectations of +3%.
Thus, even without Donald Trump, bullish traders had plenty of reasons to abandon their passive stance. However, if any traders were still considering the possibility of a U.S. military operation in Iran or hoping the presidential administration would comply with a U.S. Supreme Court ruling, Trump clarified these issues within just a few hours. An attack on Iran could begin within the next 10–15 days (if a nuclear deal is not signed), and trade tariffs remain in force, albeit in a somewhat different and more complex form. Now, all imports into the U.S. will face a unified 15% tariff in addition to sector-specific duties. Trump has lost the ability to impose tariffs unilaterally at his own discretion, but the tariffs themselves remain in force.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair declined to the support level of 1.3369–1.3435, rebounded from it, and reversed in favor of the pound. Growth has begun, but it remains within the boundaries of the descending trend channel. Therefore, strong growth can only be expected after a breakout above the corridor. In that case, bullish traders would once again target the Fibonacci level of 127.2% at 1.3795. No emerging divergences are observed today on any indicator.
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became slightly less bullish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 6,358, while short positions increased by 10,236. The current gap between long and short positions stands at approximately 82,000 versus 124,000.
In recent months, bears have more often dominated, though the situation with euro contracts is directly opposite. I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound under any circumstances.
In my view, the pound continues to look less "dangerous" than the dollar—and that is its main advantage. In the short term, the U.S. currency may occasionally see demand in the market, but not in the long term. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp decline in the labor market, forcing the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy in order to stimulate job creation. U.S. military aggression and the trade war also fail to inspire optimism among dollar bulls.
On February 23, the economic calendar contains no important entries. The news background is expected to have no impact on market sentiment on Monday.
Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
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