24.02.202615:46 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: NASDAQ100 (NDX): Black Monday and uncertain prospects

*) see also: InstaForex trading indicators for NASDAQ100 (NDX)

The US equity market is going through another period of heightened volatility. After a "Black Monday," during which all three major indices fell more than 1%, futures on the DJIA, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq100 stabilized and showed tentative gains in Asian trade on Tuesday. However, the fundamental picture remains highly uncertain: the market is caught between two powerful forces—the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) and the return of trade wars.

Current situation: double blow to market

The trading session of 23 February 2026 can be characterized as another day of large-scale selling:

· Dow Jones fell 1.66% to 48,805.00

· S&P 500 declined 1.04% to 6,848.00

· Nasdaq Composite lost 1.13%, closing at 24,745.00 after dipping to 24,627.00.

Trading volume totaled 18.39 billion shares, below the 20-day average, signaling investor caution. The main catalyst for the decline was renewed concern that rapid AI development could disrupt entire industries. Investors reacted to news from Anthropic, which unveiled new programming tools — Claude Cowork — capable of automating complex tasks.

The consequences were destructive for particular companies:

· IBM plunged 13.15%—its largest one-day drop since 2000. The market saw the new AI tools as a direct threat to IBM's core mainframe and corporate-software business.

· American Express fell 7.2% after research highlighted the risk of mass job losses in the financial sector due to AI.

· Financials lost 3.3% overall, and software companies fell 4.3%.

US Bank Wealth Management described yesterday's situation by saying the AI question is twofold—what will it cost, and whom will it affect? The market reacts to headlines on a "sell first, ask questions later" basis, trading on possible future outcomes rather than events that have already occurred.

The situation was made more fraught by a circulating report from Citrini Research titled "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis." In that speculative piece, a hypothetical scenario described widespread AI adoption leading to mass displacement of white-collar workers and unemployment rising to 10% by June 2028. Despite its fictional nature, the report sparked real panic.

At the same time, the market was digesting the fallout from a historic US Supreme Court decision. On Friday, the court found that President Trump exceeded his authority in imposing retaliatory tariffs under emergency economic powers (IEEPA).

Trump's response was immediate and severe: he announced a universal 15% tariff on all imports under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 and threatened additional sectoral duties for at least six industries.

The international reaction was swift: the European Union delayed ratification of a trade deal with the US, saying the new tariffs violated agreements; India postponed scheduled trade talks; and the United Kingdom warned of possible retaliatory measures.

Logistics took another hit from a major winter storm that paralyzed air traffic in the US Northeast. In New York airports, 89%–98% of flights were cancelled, sending airline and travel sector stocks down 3.8% and 3.7%, respectively.

Today, ahead of the US session, US equity futures show signs of stabilization as noted above: S&P 500 futures are up 0.1%–0.3% to 6,850.00–6,860.00, and the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.1%–0.4% to 24,800.00–24,830.00. However, this stabilization is largely technical—investors attempting to buy discounted assets after a broad sell-off, rather than reflecting a change in the underlying negative sentiment.

The investors' fear and greed index remained in the "fear" zone at 38 (out of 100), and the analogous crypto market index plunged deeper into "extreme fear," falling to 11 from 14 yesterday and 13 a week ago.

Outlook: three key factors

1. Nvidia report: week's main event

On Wednesday, 25 February, Nvidia, the leading maker of AI chips, will report fourth-quarter results. The market views this as a critical test for the entire tech sector. Given Nvidia's nearly 8% weight in the S&P 500, the company's results could determine market direction for the coming weeks. A strong report could dispel doubts about the AI boom's sustainability; disappointment could deepen the sell-off.

2. Trade policy: searching for equilibrium

Legal uncertainty around new tariffs persists. The Trump administration is considering further measures under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, creating a separate channel for protectionist policy. Many economists, however, believe these measures could face further legal challenges and may be tactical maneuvers to buy time.

It is worth noting that the CME FedWatch Tool indicates a nearly 96.0% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in March, and current trade uncertainty has not yet altered that expectation.

3. Consumer sentiment: gauge of economic health

Today at 15:00 GMT, the Conference Board will release its consumer confidence index for February. The consensus forecast is a rise from 84.5 to 87.6, which could support the dollar and the broader market. Given that consumer spending accounts for about 70% of US GDP, investors will watch this indicator closely.

As some investment research centers advise, this is the time to step back, reduce risk, and wait for the market to resolve its consolidation. A sustained uptrend will require leadership from tech stocks.

Key levels to watch:

· S&P 500: resistance 6,875.00 (EMA200 on 1-hour chart), support 6,800.00

· DJIA: resistance 49,150.00, support 48,750.00

· Nasdaq100: resistance 24,860.00 (EMA200 on 1-hour chart) – 25,000.00, support 24,600.00

*) see also NDX (NASDAQ100): dynamic scenarios for 24.02.2026.

Conclusion

The US equity market, and the technology sector in particular, stands at a crossroads. The current situation combines unique factors: on one hand, real advances in AI raise existential questions for entire industries; on the other, political uncertainty over trade policy is undermining investor confidence.

Near-term prospects will be shaped by three key events:

· Nvidia's report on Wednesday—the litmus test for the AI sector

· the international response to new US tariff initiatives

· macro data, including today's consumer confidence release

Investors should prepare for continued elevated volatility under any scenario. The "buy and hold" approach is under strain, and many economists recommend reducing risk and waiting for clearer directional signals. Until tech stocks demonstrate resilience and trade policy becomes predictable, the market is likely to remain risk-off with periodic technical attempts at recovery.