27.02.202604:13 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Overview of the EUR/USD Pair. February 27. Time Passes, the Market Awaits

The EUR/USD currency pair once again showed no desire to move in any direction on Thursday. If you open the news feed, you might get the impression of a large number of events and news each day. But let me ask, what is the point of all this news if the price hardly moves? It is worth remembering that, no matter the fundamental and macroeconomic background, without market movement, it is impossible to make a profit.

In general, 2026 continues the tradition of the second half of 2025. We saw a surge of emotions and trading activity at the end of January, which was associated with a whole series of events directly related, of course, to Donald Trump. But then the market returned to tranquility. The last time more or less noticeable volatility was observed was on February 18 and February 11. It is worth noting that, even with volatility of 60 pips per day, it is extremely important that the movement be trending rather than flat. Right now, we see precisely a flat trend.

The most interesting thing right now is the forecast for the dollar in 2026. Even though the euro started 2026 with a bang, then fell into a "state of repose," almost all surveyed experts and economists expect a new decline in the US currency. Simply put, the dollar is in no hurry to fall, the euro is to rise, but almost everyone is confident that the upward direction of the EUR/USD pair will remain. It seems that this is the strategy many in the cryptocurrency market follow – "buy and hold." After all, what difference does it make when the euro will continue to rise if it is known that it will continue with 100% probability?

However, most traders in the currency market are not accustomed to working this way. Over the past 8 months, they have consistently faced flat or stagnant trends or a complete lack of movement. Unfortunately, there is nothing that can be done about this.

At this time, it even makes little sense to delve into all the local events and news. The possible departure of Christine Lagarde from the ECB, new tariffs from Donald Trump that disrupt numerous already concluded trade agreements, a plethora of lawsuits to recover illegally collected tariffs, Trump's approval ratings plummeting, and the highest likelihood of his impeachment during both of his terms in the White House (67%). All of this is indeed very interesting, but what do these news items give to traders? The weakness of the dollar is undeniable; the strength of the current trend is unshakeable, and the news does not affect either.

Thus, at this time, traders should remember two things. First, volatility is low, so trading should be done on the smallest time frames, intraday, or in a medium-term perspective. Second, the upward trend from 2025 persists and has not come close to a reversal. Therefore, no matter how long the pair stays in one place, we still forecast its growth.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of February 27 is 52 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1733 and 1.1837 on Friday. The upper channel of the linear regression is pointing upwards, indicating further euro growth. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought zone, which warns of the resumption of the upward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1719

S2 – 1.1597

S3 – 1.1475

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1841

R2 – 1.1963

R3 – 1.2085

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to correct within an upward trend. The global fundamental backdrop remains extremely negative for the dollar, which remains of immense importance to the market. The pair has spent seven months within a sideways channel; it's likely time to resume the global trend of 2025. The dollar has no fundamental basis for long-term growth. Therefore, all the dollar can expect is a flat movement or corrections. If the price is positioned below the moving average, small short positions can be considered with targets of 1.1733 and 1.1719 on purely technical grounds. Above the moving average line, long positions remain relevant with targets of 1.1963 and 1.2085.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same way, it means that the trend is strong right now;

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted;

Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) are the probable price channel within which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators;

The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or into the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal is approaching in the opposite direction.