10.03.202612:47 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on March 10th (U.S. Session)

Trade Review and Advice for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1631 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro and missed the upward movement.

The euro showed noticeable growth against the dollar, reaching the 1.1650 level, which is the high of this week. Market participants interpreted the statements of the U.S. leader as a sign of easing tensions in the key oil-producing region of the Middle East, which could positively affect the global economy. However, the situation remains tense, and any escalation could quickly change market sentiment.

In the second half of today, the market expects the release of key economic indicators that will shed light on the condition of the U.S. economy. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index traditionally reflects sentiment in the small business sector, which is an important driver of the U.S. economy. A negative trend could indicate increased caution among entrepreneurs and possible future difficulties, which would be unfavorable for the dollar.

Statistics on U.S. existing home sales are another sensitive indicator of economic activity. An increase in sales volumes usually points to stronger consumer spending and a strengthening national economy, which supports the dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches the 1.1663 level (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1707. At 1.1707, I plan to exit the market and also open a short position, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. The euro may continue to rise after weak U.S. statistics.

Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1642 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth toward 1.1663 and 1.1707 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1642 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1607, where I plan to exit the market and open a buy position in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point move. Pressure on the pair could return at any moment.

Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1663 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1642 and 1.1607 may then occur.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price where the instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – expected level for placing Take Profit or manually closing positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price where the instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – expected level for placing Take Profit or manually closing positions, since further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important for Beginner Forex Traders

Beginner traders in the Forex market should make market-entry decisions very carefully. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations.

If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is generally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.