12.03.202608:05 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on March 12

It is evident that the market no longer trusts Trump's words, as, despite all his efforts, traders have returned to purchasing dollars.

Another catalyst for the strengthening of the USD has been the growth figures for the overall and core U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). Against this backdrop, the euro and the British pound, alongside the Japanese yen and other risk assets, have come under pressure. Geopolitical tensions and slowing economic growth rates in some key eurozone countries continue to raise concerns among market participants. This also creates favorable conditions for the further strengthening of the U.S. dollar.

Today, aside from Italy's unemployment data, there is no other significant statistical information from the eurozone, giving the euro a chance of a slight recovery. The absence of new economic shocks or contradictory statements from representatives of the European Central Bank keeps the currency market in a state of anticipation. Traders are likely to closely monitor any hints of a change in sentiment, but without significant news triggers, corrective movements might be short-lived.

As for the pound, the first half of the day will be marked by a significant event for financial markets: the anticipated speech by Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England. Traders and analysts are eagerly awaiting his comments regarding the current economic situation and the possible consequences of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Special attention will be given to evaluating how the conflict might impact inflationary processes and the overall dynamics of the UK economy. Given the ongoing uncertainty on the world stage, the words of the BoE's head could set the tone for further movement of the British pound.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is advisable to rely on a Mean Reversion strategy. If the data comes in significantly higher or lower than economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy would be the best approach.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Long positions on a breakout of the 1.1554 level could lead to a rise of the euro to the 1.1583 and 1.1612 levels;
• Shorts on a breakout of the 1.1530 level could result in a drop in the euro to the 1.1500 and 1.1472 levels;

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Longs on a breakout of the 1.3380 level could lead to a rise of the pound to the 1.3410 and 1.3430 levels;
• Shorts on a breakout of the 1.3350 level could result in a drop in the pound to the 1.3320 and 1.3285 levels;

For the USD/JPY Pair

• Longs on a breakout of the 159.20 level could lead to a rise of the dollar to the 159.44 and 159.72 levels;
• Shorts on a breakout of the 158.95 level could lead to a sell-off of the dollar to the 158.60 and 158.20 levels;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• I will look for shorts after a failed breakout beyond 1.1563 on a return below this level;
• I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.1522 on a return to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair

• I will look for shorts after a failed breakout beyond 1.3405 on a return below this level;
• I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3345 on a return to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair

• I will look for shorts after a failed breakout beyond 0.7168 on a return below this level;
• I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 0.7112 on a return to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair

• I will look for shorts after a failed breakout beyond 1.3602 on a return below this level;
• I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3567 on a return to this level;