13.03.202609:30 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Stock market on March 13: S&P 500 and NASDAQ extend weakness

Stock indices closed sharply lower yesterday. The S&P 500 fell by 1.52%, while the Nasdaq 100 plunged by 1.78%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.56%.

Today, in the last trading day of the week, the slide in global equity markets abated as oil prices stabilized after a period of volatility, although investors remain wary of risks tied to the Iran war.

The MSCI All-Country World Index, one of the broadest gauges of global equities, eased by about 0.2% after a 1.5% drop in the prior session. Futures on US and European indices rose after the S&P 500 hit its lowest level since last November. Brent crude fell back below $100/bbl after jumping by 9.2% on Thursday.

Market volatility remains elevated as investors assess how effective US measures will be at containing energy price pressure amid escalating rhetoric from President Trump and Iran's new supreme leader. Yesterday, it emerged that the US issued a second temporary licence to buy Russian oil — covering crude loaded onto tankers up to March 12 — a broader measure than an earlier directive this month that allowed India to incentivise purchases. According to IG Australia, the situation will not change fundamentally, but the timing is helpful as it eases near-term concerns ahead of the weekend. Meanwhile, Brent is approaching $100/bbl as the IEA warns of the largest disruption to supplies in the history of the global oil market.

Ahead of the weekend, concerns persist that any further escalation in the Middle East could tighten energy supplies further. Mojtaba Khamenei said Iran would pursue effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump, meanwhile, wrote on social media that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and curbing threats in the Middle East are far more important than oil prices.

Goldman Sachs warned that oil could exceed the 2008 peak if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain low through the end of March. In 2008, Brent reached a high of $147.50. The IEA said the war with Iran is producing unprecedented disruption to oil markets, affecting roughly 7.5% of global supply and an even larger share of exports.

Today, investors will be watching US inflation data closely. The core PCE price index is unlikely to dramatically change the backdrop given the geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, but markets will be paying attention.

Elsewhere, Treasury prices were broadly unchanged. However, their volatility spiked to a nine-month high as the Iran war flipped traders' expectations for Fed policy. Before the conflict, in late February, markets priced roughly 61 bps of cuts by year-end; that figure has fallen to just under 20 bps.

As for the S&P 500 technical analysis, buyers' immediate task is to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,682. This would help the index gain renewed upside momentum and could open the way to $6,697. Gaining control of $6,711 would further strengthen the bullish case. On the downside, buyers should defend around $6,672. A break below that level would quickly bring the instrument back down to $6,660 and could open the path to $6,651.