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Bitcoin has staged a sort of rebound after a month-long range. Yet even now, the technical picture does not look like the start of a new uptrend. On the daily timeframe, it is clear that the current rise is a weak correction, with a liquidity pool below that price will likely revisit with about 90% probability. On the 4?hour chart, you can see how slowly Bitcoin is rising. A fast, sharp drop combined with slow, anaemic rises is a classic sign of a downtrend. Our view, therefore, remains unchanged.
Meanwhile, some crypto experts and traders have begun to note a worrying trend for Bitcoin. Ran Neuner has pointed out that hosting AI data centres is eight times more profitable than Bitcoin mining. Both industries desperately need power and thus compete for limited energy capacity. Miner profits are roughly $60–$130 per megawatt used, while data centres offer $200–$500 per the same amount of electricity. As a result, some miners are switching to AI.
MARA Holdings is reportedly planning to sell some Bitcoin to pivot toward the AI sector. Hut 8 and Core Scientific intend to develop AI infrastructure, and Bitmain co-founder Jihan Wu has completely left crypto for AI. Ran Neuner said that if he were a miner, he would have moved into AI long ago; in his view, more participants are leaving the Bitcoin network. Neuner also stated that Bitcoin can only compete successfully with AI if its price rises substantially, generating higher miner revenue and persuading them not to abandon the network.
Not all crypto experts agree with Neuner, but we have grown used to such debates during these tough months for Bitcoin. Anyone who dares criticize the flagship crypto and predict its decline is immediately hit with harsh pushback and a torrent of counterarguments.
Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downtrend. We still expect a decline to $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three-year uptrend), and there are currently no signs of a trend reversal. Even $57,500 no longer looks like the final stop. From POI areas, note only the nearest bearish FVG on the daily timeframe, which sits quite far from the price. On the 4?hour TF, a Breaker?block could form a basis for opening long positions toward $79,300, but keep in mind that any rise in crypto now is just a correction.
A downtrend continues to form on the daily TF. The key sell pattern has been and remains the bearish order block on the weekly TF. As we warned, the move triggered by that signal can be strong and prolonged. Since that pattern formed, Ethereum has fallen roughly 55% (about $2,500). In the near term, an upward correction is still possible; the 4?hour order block has been invalidated, and Ethereum has left the sideways channel. Thus, Ethereum is likely to move toward one of the daily?timeframe FVGs in the short term.
CHOCH — change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity — liquidity, traders' Stop Losses that market?makers use to build their positions. FVG — Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). Price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one particular direction in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG — Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
OB — Order Block. A candle on which a market maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.
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