30.03.202604:40 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Overview of the GBP/USD Pair. Weekly Preview. Non-Farm Payrolls and ISM Indices

The GBP/USD currency pair traded lower again on Friday and ended the day near the last four local lows. As a result, the British pound has once again reached the bottom of recent months. The reasons remain the same: geopolitics and nothing more. It's worth recalling that the Bank of England also plans to tighten monetary policy in April, as inflation is likely to spike in Great Britain as well. However, expectations of a key rate hike are providing no support for the British currency.

In the coming week, there will be plenty of important macroeconomic events, but we must immediately ask whether they will affect traders' sentiment. We believe that locally, reports on inflation or the labor market will have an impact. However, they will not change the overall trend seen over the past few months.

In the UK this week, one important event is the third estimate of the fourth-quarter GDP report. It is expected that the growth rate will decline to 1%, but at this point, it holds no significance. The economies of many countries are expected to slow amid soaring oil and gas prices. The most interesting publications are scheduled in the US.

On Tuesday, the JOLTs report on job openings for February will be released, followed by the ADP report for March, the retail sales report for February, and the ISM manufacturing index on Wednesday. Finally, on Friday, the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and the unemployment rate will be published. As we mentioned, it is unlikely that these reports will change the market sentiment, but they may have a local impact on the dollar's exchange rate.

In our view, the most significant will be the Non-Farm Payrolls, unemployment rate, and ISM index reports. The number of new jobs created in March may total 48,000, which is still extremely low to speak of a recovery in the US labor market. Moreover, no one knows how the economy will respond to the conflict in the Middle East in March. It is quite possible that the actual figure for Non-Farm Payrolls will be much lower. The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.5% (up from 4.4% in February), and the ISM manufacturing index may decline slightly. Therefore, support for the US dollar from macroeconomic data is not anticipated. Nonetheless, the dollar may still continue to rise due to geopolitical factors.

Additionally, over the weekend, information surfaced indicating that Iran may begin attacking American and Israeli educational institutions located in the region. Thus, while Donald Trump may be negotiating with some Iranian officials, those conversations seem to hold little significance for now. The official position of Tehran remains unchanged.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 110 pips, which is considered "high" for the pound/dollar pair. Therefore, on Monday, March 30, we expect movement within a range bounded by levels of 1.3149 and 1.3369. The upper linear regression channel has turned downward, indicating a change in trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area twice and has formed a "bullish" divergence, which again warns of a potential end to the downward trend. However, geopolitics is currently more significant than technical signals.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.3184

S2 – 1.3062

S3 – 1.2939

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.3306

R2 – 1.3428

R3 – 1.3550

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair has been correcting for a month and a half, but its long-term prospects have not changed. Donald Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the US economy, making it difficult to expect the American currency to grow in 2026. Thus, long positions with targets of 1.3916 and above remain relevant when the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, minor short positions can be considered, with targets at 1.3184 and 1.3149, based on geopolitical factors. In recent weeks, nearly all news and events have turned against the British pound, further prolonging the downward trend.

Explanations of the Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help identify the current trend. If both are pointing in the same direction, it indicates a strong trend.
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently proceed.
• Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the likely price range the pair will trade within over the next 24 hours, based on current volatility metrics.
• The CCI indicator—its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or into the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.