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During Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair reversed in favor of the euro and rose to the 100.0% corrective level at 1.1577. Consolidation above this level will favor further growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 76.4% at 1.1696. A rebound from the 1.1577 level will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and a resumption of the decline toward the 127.2% corrective level at 1.1440.
The wave situation on the hourly chart is becoming quite complex. The last completed upward wave exceeded the peak of the previous wave by only a few points, while the new downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the trend has once again shifted to "bearish," but as early as today or tomorrow, a new upward wave may break the previous peak. Donald Trump's actions in the Middle East have triggered large-scale military operations and an energy crisis in the region, which has provided unprecedented support for the dollar.
On Tuesday, the news background was quite interesting. The day began with new speeches by Jerome Powell and Donald Trump, each of which supported the bulls. Trump is ready to give the order to end the "Iran operation" in the near future, while Jerome Powell sees no reason to tighten monetary policy. Both of these factors do not support EUR/USD bears or the dollar. In addition, inflation in the Eurozone rose to 2.5% year-on-year in March. Although this figure is below traders' expectations, it is important to note the strong growth in the consumer price index since the beginning of the energy crisis. Not all economists expect the European Central Bank to tighten monetary policy in April, but all traders understand that if inflation continues to rise at this pace, the European regulator will have to intervene by raising interest rates. This is positive news for the euro. On Tuesday, for the first time in several weeks, the news turned in favor of the euro, allowing the bulls to launch an attack.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair declined to the 100.0% corrective level at 1.1474, rebounded from it, and reversed in favor of the euro with consolidation above the descending trend channel. Is the bearish trend over? Thus, the upward movement may continue in the near term toward the Fibonacci levels of 76.4% at 1.1617 and 61.8% at 1.1706. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicator.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
During the last reporting week, professional traders closed another 12,861 long positions and 1,008 short positions. Thus, in just six weeks, the total advantage of the bulls has disappeared. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 200,000, while short positions amount to 190,000. Six weeks ago, the bulls' advantage among non-commercial traders was more than double.
Overall, in the long term, major players continue to show strong interest in the euro. Of course, various global events—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—affect investor sentiment in different ways. In particular, the market's attention is now focused on the Middle East, where the war continues to escalate and expand geographically. Thus, in the near future, the euro and dollar exchange rate will depend not on the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank, nor on economic data, but on the war in Iran. And for now, the dollar is benefiting the most from this situation.
News calendar for the US and the Eurozone:
On April 1, the economic calendar contains four entries, with the U.S. data standing out. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday may be noticeable in the second half of the day.
EUR/USD forecast and trader advice:
Selling the pair is possible today if there is a rebound from the 1.1577 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1440. Buy trades were possible upon a rebound from the 1.1440 level with a target of 1.1577, but no clear rebound was observed. Today, buying the pair is possible upon a close above 1.1577, with a target of 1.1696.
Fibonacci levels are built from 1.1577–1.2082 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.
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