03.04.202611:25 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: USD/JPY. Price Analysis and Forecast. The Japanese yen faces difficulties

The USD/JPY pair is holding near the 159.70 level after yesterday's rise. However, the pair's momentum remains limited amid reduced market activity due to the Good Friday holiday.

The Japanese yen is struggling, coming under pressure from the U.S. dollar amid growing uncertainty about the Bank of Japan's next steps. Although the Bank of Japan has hinted at a possible key interest rate hike as early as this month, market participants still doubt whether the central bank is ready to provide clear forward guidance before its meeting scheduled for April 28.

As Reuters notes, on Friday a senior Bank of Japan official stated that the central bank intends to continue gradually raising rates if economic forecasts remain valid. These comments support expectations of monetary policy tightening, even as recent surveys show increasing pressure on companies due to rising energy prices amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Executive Director Koji Nakamura emphasized in parliament that rising oil prices pose risks to economic growth, but can support core inflation and strengthen long-term inflation expectations.

The USD/JPY pair remains stable, supported by the U.S. dollar, which is strengthening due to increased investor interest in safe-haven assets. The heightened demand for the dollar is linked to rising geopolitical tensions following harsh statements by U.S. President Donald Trump toward Iran. The American leader did not specify what steps would be taken to restore shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, but warned of a possible escalation of military actions in the coming weeks. In response, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that U.S. strikes on civilian infrastructure would not force Tehran to retreat, calling them evidence of discord and moral decline on the part of the opponent.

From a technical perspective, the pair is trading above all moving averages, and oscillators remain positive. The pair encountered resistance at the 159.70 level. If it breaks above this level, it may challenge the March high. The nearest support lies at the 9-day EMA and the 20-day SMA. If these levels fail to hold, prices may fall to 158.25 and then to the round level of 158.00. However, as long as oscillators remain positive, the bulls are ready to prevail.