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The EUR/USD currency pair traded with a volatility of 37 pips on Friday. This level of volatility was expected by traders on the day of the publication of the US Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. However, we are not particularly surprised by such a "wonderful" result, as we have repeatedly stated that the macroeconomic background has almost no impact on the pair's movement. We were uncertain whether the market would completely ignore such crucial reports from the US, but it turns out that nothing is impossible.
Thus, we can say right away that not much will change next week. Of course, we will consider the most important macroeconomic reports, but they are unlikely to significantly affect traders' sentiment. Geopolitics will still be at the forefront. Donald Trump may launch a new strike on Iran in the coming days, thereby provoking another escalation in the Middle East. We struggle to understand the sense in a new strike, especially against energy targets, given that Tehran has already made it clear that it intends to continue defending its sovereignty, independence, and political course. New strikes on Iranian territory will only provoke further retaliation from Middle Eastern countries.
However, Trump cannot simply retreat. More accurately, he can, but likely does not want to. Trump understands that the longer the war continues, the lower his political ratings fall. Trump himself will not participate in the 2026 elections; however, the political ratings are falling not only for Trump but for the entire Republican Party. American voters understand that a Republican victory in the congressional elections would allow Trump to make decisions essentially unopposed. The first year of his presidency clearly demonstrated what those decisions might be and how the standard of living for Americans could rise as a result. Therefore, we believe that Americans will vote for the Democrats simply to prevent the Republicans from winning.
Thus, Trump should currently focus on saving at least one chamber of Congress. To achieve this, he needs to end the war in Iran and also start doing something for his own country. For example, boosting the economy, improving relations with trading partners, and working on restoring the labor market. However, it is likely that Trump will choose a different path. Therefore, we expect new strikes on Iran, which could trigger another rise in energy prices and strengthen the dollar.
In the Eurozone, there will be very few interesting reports this week. For the Eurozone, the interesting reports include only retail sales, while Germany will release second estimates of business activity indexes, trade balance, industrial production, and the second inflation estimate. As we can see, there are unlikely to be any reports that will influence the pair's movements under the current circumstances. From a technical perspective, the pair has traded between 1.1450 and 1.1630 over the past two weeks.
The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of April 6 is 81 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1434 and 1.1596 on Monday. The upper linear regression channel has turned downward, indicating a change in trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area and formed a "bullish" divergence, which once again warns of the completion of the downward trend.
The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement, prompted by geopolitics. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains extremely negative; however, for over a month, the market has focused solely on geopolitics, making all other factors virtually irrelevant. If the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered with targets of 1.1434 and 1.1353. Above the moving average line, long positions are relevant with targets of 1.1629 and 1.1719. For a stronger upward movement, the geopolitical backdrop needs to stabilize.
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