06.04.202609:28 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Oil Prices Are Far From Ideal

Despite oil prices stabilizing as traders reacted strongly to media reports of a desire for a ceasefire in the Middle East, the situation in the energy market remains fundamentally unchanged.

Brent crude oil prices fell below $110 per barrel, losing much of the initial increase, while West Texas Intermediate prices approached $111. Online information indicates that the US, Iran, and regional intermediaries have begun discussing the terms of a potential 45-day pause that could lead to a definitive end to the war. However, the chances of a partial agreement within the next 48 hours remain low. Recall that in less than 24 hours, Trump's ultimatum for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz will expire.

Over the weekend, Trump threatened in a series of social media posts to "unleash hell" on Iran by striking power plants and other infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened. Tehran has rejected these demands, and the route remains closed to all vessels except for a small number.

This indicates that tensions in the Persian Gulf remain at a critical level. Trump's statements, filled with belligerent rhetoric, imply a readiness to escalate the conflict, including striking key Iranian infrastructure if Tehran does not meet the ultimatum to open the Strait of Hormuz. Such developments have inevitably captured the attention of the global community, which is concerned about the far-reaching consequences of such confrontation and is clearly unable to compete with media rumors about negotiations for a 45-day peace.

Tehran's reaction was predictably firm. Iranian authorities categorically rejected the claims and threats from Washington, calling them unacceptable and provocative. The statement that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed to the passage of most vessels posed a direct challenge to the American administration and affirmed Iran's intention to continue its policy despite mounting pressure. This deadlock in relations jeopardizes not only regional security but also the stability of global energy markets.

The war has already plunged the oil market into chaos, causing an unprecedented supply shock that is escalating into a global energy crisis. Oil prices and fuel products have surged sharply, exacerbating inflationary pressure, undermining economic growth, and placing additional burdens on businesses and consumers.

Trump announced plans to hold a press conference at 1:00 PM on Monday and set a deadline for Tuesday at 8:00 PM Eastern Time, without clarifying what he meant. On March 26, Trump gave Iran a ten-day deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which expires on Monday evening.

As for the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $113.36. This will allow them to target $118.88, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The further target will be around $124.86. In the event of a price decline, bears will attempt to take control at $106.83. If successful, breaking through this range would deliver a significant blow to bullish positions and could drive oil prices down to a low of $100.40, with the potential to reach $92.54.