06.04.202621:40 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/USD. Smart Money Analysis

The EUR/USD pair showed slight growth on Monday, which may be a reaction to imbalance 12, which is considered "bullish." Thus, bulls have a new opportunity to launch an attack toward imbalance 11. Imbalance 11 remains a resistance zone for the EUR/USD pair, while the chart pattern has recently been quite complex and ambiguous.

However, the problem is not only in the chart. For example, Friday's U.S. labor market and unemployment data were ignored. And they were ignored by the bears, who had been attacking almost non-stop over the past two months. Does this not suggest that no one wants to sell the pair and, accordingly, buy the dollar anymore? Indeed, how much longer can the U.S. dollar rise based solely on the war in the Middle East? A year? How long will traders continue to ignore the negative flow of news from the U.S.?

All of the U.S. currency's growth over the past 4–5 weeks has been driven by geopolitics. Now, traders are wavering, not knowing what to do. At times, Trump wants to unblock the Strait of Hormuz; at others, he shifts responsibility to other countries. Sometimes he speaks about successful negotiations with Iran, and other times he promises to destroy it. We see the reflection of these events on the chart.

I have repeatedly said that I do not believe in the end of the bullish trend, despite the breakout of important trend-forming lows. The movement of the past two months could turn into a bearish trend if geopolitics continues to support the dollar. However, at this moment, I still doubt the bears' ability to sustain continuous pressure over a long period. Further growth of the U.S. dollar is possible only if geopolitics continues to strongly support the bears. And as I have already said, this requires the situation in the Middle East not just to remain tense, but to worsen further.

The chart pattern is beginning to transform and is becoming very interesting. First, the price may soon react to imbalance 11. This would already be the second reaction, which could turn out weaker—or may not occur at all. However, let me remind you once again that the bullish trend remains intact, and near imbalance 11 only a sell signal may form.

Second, today the price may react to imbalance 12, thereby forming a bullish signal within a bullish trend. Another important point is the potential liquidity grabs from the last two bullish swings, which may coincide with the testing of imbalance 11. Thus, it is still too early to say that bulls are launching a full-scale offensive, but the probability of this exists. The key condition is that a ceasefire between Washington and Tehran is achieved.

The news background on Monday was quite weak, and after Friday no one expected strong movements following the ISM Services PMI release. In any case, traders continue to focus solely on geopolitics, and at the moment they are waiting for April 7. It is on April 7 that Trump set a new deadline in negotiations with Tehran, after which he has threatened to deliver a devastating strike on Iran. Therefore, the market may face another wave of volatility tomorrow.

There are still plenty of reasons for bulls to attack, and even the start of the war in the Middle East has not reduced them. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies—which led to a significant decline of the dollar last year—have not changed. In the near term, the U.S. currency may strengthen amid a flight to safety, but this factor cannot support it indefinitely and requires constant escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. There are no other supporting factors for the U.S. dollar. I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend. The dollar has received temporary support, but what will allow bears to continue their attack?

Economic calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• U.S. – Change in Durable Goods Orders (12:30 UTC).

On April 7, the economic calendar contains one fairly important event. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday may be felt in the second half of the day—unless traders ignore this report as well.

EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:

In my opinion, the pair remains in the stage of forming a bullish trend. The news background sharply changed the direction of movement four weeks ago, but the trend itself cannot yet be considered fully canceled or completed. Therefore, in the near future, traders need new patterns and signals to form short-term forecasts and open positions.

In the near term, bears may receive a signal at imbalance 11, but if geopolitics does not worsen beyond current levels, the signal may not form. Bulls, on the other hand, can look for a signal within imbalance 12, which would allow opening buy positions with a target around the 1.1670 level.