08.04.202613:24 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – April 8th

The British pound, euro, and Australian dollar were traded today using the Momentum strategy. I did not execute any trades using Mean Reversion.

Given the strong bullish market, it was both possible and necessary to bet on further strengthening of risk assets. However, data on eurozone retail sales and producer prices came in line with economists' forecasts, while the construction PMI remained below 50, which limited the upward potential of the euro and the pound.

At the same time, the fact that the actual data met expectations still supports buyers, which prevented an active sell-off of risk assets—even amid new threats from Trump to resume attacks on Iran.

The focus will now shift to the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, as well as speeches by FOMC members Christopher Waller and Mary Daly. These events may introduce new dynamics into financial markets. The publication of the FOMC minutes is traditionally one of the most anticipated events of the week. In this document, investors and traders look for more detailed explanations of the reasoning behind monetary policy decisions made by the Federal Open Market Committee. Particular attention will be paid to any hints regarding future interest rate hikes or cuts. Given inflation risks, such details may provide insight into the Fed's commitment to its goals and its readiness to respond to changes in the economic environment.

Alongside the minutes, speeches by Christopher Waller and Mary Daly will be key for assessing current sentiment within the Fed. Considering that Waller is known for his more "hawkish" views, any comments he makes regarding inflation or the need for further tightening will be closely analyzed. At the same time, statements from Mary Daly, who sometimes takes a more "dovish" stance, may offer a balanced perspective—or, conversely, reinforce expectations of a softer policy.

New statements from Trump may also have a strong impact on the currency market, so be prepared for that.

In the case of strong data, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD:

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1705 may lead to growth toward 1.1745 and 1.1770;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1667 may lead to a decline toward 1.1635 and 1.1602;

For GBP/USD:

• Look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 1.3447 with a return below this level;
• Look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 1.3408 with a return to this level;

For AUD/USD:

• Look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 0.7059 with a return below this level;
• Look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 0.7022 with a return to this level;

For USD/CAD:

• Look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 1.3885 with a return below this level;
• Look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 1.3852 with a return to this level;