10.04.202601:01 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: WTI: Oil Production Disruptions in Saudi Arabia Limit Price Decline

On Thursday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are offsetting previous gains amid a new wave of optimism that eases concerns regarding the conflict in the Middle East, shifting sentiment toward the stability of the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.

On Wednesday, WTI oil prices fell nearly 10% after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. However, markets quickly became cautious due to doubts about compliance with the terms of the agreement. Iran reported that three key points of the ceasefire had already been violated as a result of Israeli attacks on Lebanon.

Israel claims that the ceasefire does not cover its conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon, while Iran insists otherwise, warning of the possibility of withdrawing from the agreement if the attacks continue.

These events raise concerns about potential disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, increasing risks for supplies. Nevertheless, signs of stabilization are beginning to appear. According to MarineTraffic data, the first non-Iranian oil tanker has passed through the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire announcement.

Geopolitical tension seems to be easing somewhat. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reported that he has instructed his cabinet to initiate direct negotiations with Lebanon. In a separate report, NBC cited an American official stating that President Donald Trump urged Israel to reduce strikes on Lebanon to support the ongoing negotiations with Iran.

However, supply-side risks remain significant. According to the Saudi Press Agency, a representative from the Ministry of Energy stated that, due to recent attacks, operations at several energy facilities have been suspended. Specifically, the Khurais and Manifa oil fields each reduced output by approximately 300,000 barrels per day, while damage to the East-West pipeline decreased throughput by about 700,000 barrels per day.

From a technical perspective, prices have dropped below the 20-day SMA, but oscillators have not yet turned negative, confirming that bulls have not lost strength. Therefore, it is still early for bears to open positions.