10.04.202606:51 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: What to Pay Attention to on April 10? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are relatively few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday. The only notable reports include inflation data from Germany and the U.S. The German inflation report will be a second estimate, so it's unlikely to attract traders' interest. In contrast, the American inflation report should pique market interest, although several important reports have been published over the past two months, all of which have been ignored. Therefore, traders should be prepared for volatility during the American trading session, but it's also not surprising if the market overlooks this publication. Geopolitical factors remain the priority, and if new significant news emerges on this front, the market will respond to it first. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index can also be noted, but under the current circumstances, one should not expect a market reaction to it either.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is absolutely nothing noteworthy in the fundamental events on Friday, yet the market continues to ignore practically all news unrelated to geopolitics. On Wednesday night, news of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran emerged, and by the day, the U.S., Iran, and Israel launched new missiles. Thus, it is currently unclear whether the ceasefire has ended or continues. Since the market cannot answer this question, the dollar's decline has halted.

General Conclusions:

During the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade in any direction, as the market continues to react solely to geopolitical news, which is impossible to predict. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1655-1.1666, while the British pound can be traded in the ranges of 1.3403-1.3407 or 1.3437-1.3446. We still see no grounds for strong, sustained growth in the American currency (considering all factors, not just geopolitics), and the improving geopolitical situation has already triggered a collapse in the dollar.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range, any pair can generate a lot of false signals or may not generate them at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade MACD signals only when volatility is good, and the trend is confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
5. If two levels are located too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.